Waiting on Clarity: A Quick Market Brief
April 20th, 2025 - Update
This Week’s Market Snapshot
I’ll keep it short. The U.S. economy was tracking smoothly and inflation was cooling—until tariff madness kicked uncertainty back into the mix. Now, markets are bracing for slower growth if those levies bite into global trade.
If policy clarity returns, risk assets should rally. Until then, the charts say: stay defensive.
What’s Ahead
M2 Money Supply: New data drops next week. I expect liquidity to edge higher.
Fed & Tariffs: If the tariff narrative eases, equities could rebound. If not, we’ll see more choppy sessions or downside.
At this point, President Trump’s is running the show.
Index Review: NASDAQ (10‑Year Monthly)
Support: The 40‑month moving average has caught almost every pullback for the last decade. It sits roughly 10% below today’s level—an important floor to watch.
Warning: Momentum is fading. The monthly MACD just crossed negative, signaling a decisive shift.
Takeaway: Patience remains the best play.
Portfolio Positioning
I’m 100% cash in short‑term buckets.
I revamped my “10X Best of ARKK” model last week—selecting 10 top names from the ARKK Innovation Fund and rebalancing quarterly.
Paid subscribers can view all live portfolios here.
PORTFOLIOS
I am fully in cash in my short term portfolios.
Last week, I updated my “10X Best of ARKK” portfolio. It tests my stock‑picking methodology by selecting the ten strongest stocks in the ARKK Innovation Fund and rebalancing quarterly. SO far I am winning by a large margin: ROI at 31%, 79% annualized, +45% vs the ARKK Innovation Fund.
If you are a paid subscriber, you can access all my portfolios here.
That’s all for the week! Let’s see what lies ahead.
Happy Easter everybody!
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Important:
this is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.