Uptrend Continues: Assessing the Market's Behavior and Portfolio Opportunities

July 30 2023 - Update

My quick update for the week:

Looking at the SP500 Equal Weight, I regard it as the most useful index for assessing the overall market behavior, and it still shows an uptrend. While I sense a pause may be approaching soon, I can only evaluate the chart in front of me, which still indicates an uptrend.

Economic data suggests that a recession is unlikely, and in fact, GDP data for the second quarter came in stronger than expected. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, and it's highly likely that we are nearing the end of this hiking cycle. Credit is tightening, but at a slower pace, and M2 (the total amount of money in the system) is no longer shrinking.

Personally, I'm becoming more optimistic as I look ahead to the next 12-24 months. This implies that the worst may be behind us, although temporary corrections will likely occur as usual. Let's observe how the market unfolds and remain flexible for all scenarios.