Uptrend, But Fragile: My AI-Assisted Market Check-In
November 10, 2025 - Update
I’m travelling and couldn’t go through my usual process over the weekend.
I want to let you know that I’m not doing anything this week and I’ll be watching how things develop. I have my stops in place, and I’ll provide an update on my portfolios next Sunday.
Below is my AI-assisted take on the current market.
Where we are
Stage 2 – advancing, late/mature. Price closed above a rising 30-week MA and still above the 10-week (~6,729).
This week was a shakeout: down -1.6% w/w, intrawEEK ~-4.2% from highs, but buyers defended the 50-day on Friday and the 10-week on the weekly view.
Evidence (step-by-step)
Trend: 10/20/30-week MAs are all rising → primary uptrend intact.
Momentum: Weekly MACD is positive but rolling over; histogram declining. RSI ~63—off highs, not overbought.
Breadth: composite breadth fell to ~47% → participation is narrowing even as the index holds trend.
Leadership: Mega-cap tech wobbled; equal-weight and cyclicals showed strong Friday reversal.
Volatility: VIX remains elevated vs its 10-wk EMA → expect chop until it cools.
Levels that matter
10-week ≈ 6,729 → first support / buy-the-dip zone for leaders.
20-week ≈ 6,521 → deeper but normal Stage-2 pullback.
30-week ≈ 6,251 → line in the sand for the bull trend.
Positioning (what to do now)
Stance: Uptrend intact but fragile. Operate selectively on defense until breadth turns up.
Keep exposure moderate. Add only on A-setups in leaders (semis, solar, select healthcare/AI infra).
Prefer pullbacks to 10-week that reverse on volume; don’t chase extended names.
Stops: stocks 10–15% or a weekly close <20-week, whichever first.
Risk triggers to watch:
Breadth >56% and VIX back below its 10-wk EMA → green light to press.
Breadth <45% or weekly close <10-week → cut risk and wait.
Pros vs. Cons
Pros
Rising 10/20/30-wk MAs; price still above all.
Strong Friday reversals and healthy breakout count.
RSI/MACD not overheated → room if buyers return.
Cons
Breadth weak.
Momentum cooling; leaders volatile.
Elevated VIX → higher whipsaw risk.
Bottom line
Primary trend up (Stage-2), but participation is thinning—treat it as a late-stage advance: buy only pullbacks in true leaders, keep positions smaller, and let the 10/20/30-week rails and breadth decide your aggression.
Important: This post is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.