Uncertainty and Momentum Portfolios Updates
December 10th, 2023 Update
Not much happened last week as we are entering an interesting week ahead. Next Tuesday 12th, 2023 we’ll get the official CPI reading for the past November. Expectations are for a number very close to 3% (Year over Year). If we touch the 2% number we might see some exuberance in the markets.
The problem is that the forecasting for the December CPi reading (to be published in January 2024) is trending up at 3.4%, even if oil prices have been on the decline lately.
The RSP 0.00%↑ (Equal weight SP500) is flirting with the top of the consolidation box:
While the NASDAQ is in a clear uptrend and testing the highs from last July:
The 10-year treasury yield didn’t move much either. From a sentiment perspective, we are not in in the “GREED” territory yet.
On Wednesday of next week, we’ll have a decision from the FED regarding rates, although the consensus is for a “no change”, nobody is sure 100% about what will happen.
On Friday we’ll get an updated number for Jobless claims: a very bad number might make the markets very nervous.
All in all, we keep navigating a very difficult environment to decipher.
There is room for a further upside in the upcoming few weeks if CPI and economic data align with the “soft landing” and “inflation getting under control” narrative.
At this point, the market is not betting on an imminent bad recession. Not yet, at least.
MY MOMENTUM PORTFOLIOS
10X SMALL CAP MOMENTUM POT
I am not touching anything this week. Thanks to my 2 positions in ML 0.00%↑ the pot is largely in the green this year. This is a great lesson on risk/reward management. Although I got several losers in my portfolio, a few winners more than compensated. My ROI is 35% right now and almost 20% above the SP500 that I am using as a benchmark.
10X LARGE CAP MOMENTUM POT
Here the picture is different with a flat ROI so far (0%) and a -11% versus the SP500. Here I am doing the following this week:
Raise my PDD 0.00%↑ stoploss to $119;
Creating a STOP BUY order for 7 shares of SMCI 0.00%↑ if it touches $275. if triggered, I’ll place my Stop Loss at $249;
Creating a STOP BUY order for 39 shares of SYM 0.00%↑ if it touches $51.7. If triggered, I’ll place my Stop Loss at $45.9;
Below is the current picture of the Large-cap momentum portfolio:
That’s all for the week.
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Important: This is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.