Time for a breaK? What I am doing before elections.

October 27th, 2024 - Update

Oct 27, 2024

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MACRO

Let’s start with the macroeconomic outlook.

The latest GDN Nowcast for Q3 2024 from the New York Federal Reserve is 2.91%, down from 3.1% a couple of weeks ago. It amazes me how quickly these models change, especially considering that Q3 is already behind us.

The Nowcast for Q4 is at 2.41% and is trending slightly downward.

Is this bad? Not really. If the economy continues to slow down gradually (pun intended), it would be beneficial for stocks because interest rates will decrease step by step. This means there is no emergency or significant fear of the economy collapsing. This scenario is well illustrated by the chart below:

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