The 4.4% Sprint: Why the Economy is Growing, But Your Neighbor Might Not Be
January 25, 2026 - Update
đ The 4.4% Sprint: Growth, Credit, and the Ownership Gap
The latest economic data is in, and itâs a head-turner. GDP grew at a 4.4% annualized rate, outperforming expectations. Even better? The Core PCE Price Index (the Fedâs favorite inflation gauge) landed exactly where everyone hoped it would.
The Inflation Story: Cooling Fast
Inflation is losing its grip. Forecasts for January 2026 sit at 2.35%, a major improvement from the 2.7% we saw just a month ago.
But if you want a âsneak peekâ at the future, look at the Truflation US CPI Index. As a leading indicator that updates faster than formal government data, it currently sits at 1.2%âwell below the Fedâs 2% target. Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations (the 5-Year, 5-Year Forward rate) remain anchored at 2.2%. Combine this with rising labor productivity, and you have a recipe for a very supportive stock market environment.
Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers:
Credit: Open for Business
One of the best ways to gauge the economyâs health is to see if banks are actually lending. The data shows they are:
Willingness to lend: Domestic banks are reporting an increased appetite for consumer loans.
Commercial activity: Loans to businesses are trending up.
Financial conditions: The Chicago Fed Credit Subindex is improving, and lending standards are finally beginning to loosen.
The Catch: A âNarrowâ Boom
While the 4.4% headline number is great, we have to look at who is driving it. This boom is heavily powered by the top 10% of earners who are spending big on luxury travel, fine dining, and high-end tech. Additionally, a massive chunk of GDP growth is coming from AI infrastructure investment.
The hard truth: This growth isnât yet felt by everyone. The stock market is creating immense wealth, but too many people are watching from the sidelines.
This is the entire point of this publication. To participate in the wealth creation of the next 30 years, you must own a piece of it. You do that by buying ownership in the most innovative and profitable companies in the world.
đ Market Index Review
S&P 500 Weekly (Ending Jan 23, 2026)
1. The Big Picture: Still Stage 2
Using the Weinstein lens, we remain in a Stage 2 Advance. Price is holding above a rising 30-week Moving Average ($\approx 6,640.82$). This is our primary ârisk-onâ signal. However, momentum is cooling; we are shifting from the âeasy trendâ into a consolidation phase.
2. Price Action
Close: 6,915.61 (-0.35%)
The Weekly Candle: We saw a wide range this week, but the close near the highs shows that while sellers tried to push us down, buyers successfully defended the dip.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $6,986 - 7,000$. A weekly close above this âround numberâ signals the next leg up.
Immediate Support: $6,860$ (10-week MA). This is the first âbuyableâ area if leaders remain strong.
The âLine in the Sandâ: $6,640$ (30-week MA). If we break this, the current regime has changed.
4. The Game Plan
Donât chase the 7,000 level. Instead, look for pullbacks toward the 10-week and 20-week averages in true market leaders with âcleanâ bases.
đź Portfolios Update
10X Momentum Portfolio
I am currently fully invested. My WT position is now complete after my buy stop was triggered this week.
Watchlist: AFRM is hovering just 2% above its stop loss. I may be exiting this position next week if the weakness continues.
Performance: Iâm thrilled with this breakout strategy. We are currently at 48% annualized after nearly three years, beating the S&P 500 by a massive 133 percentage points.
I updated my Stop Loss levels.
I cannot buy any stock as my Portfolio is full. BTW here a few names I like lot right now: NXT, VNOM, IBKR, WT
Thatâs all for the week!
Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclosure: The content has been reviewed using artificial intelligence to enhance readability and ensure grammatical accuracy.