Tech Leads, FED Talks, and a New High-Risk Buy
September 14th, 2025 - Update
Important: This post is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision
MACRO
US inflation came in as expected at 2.9%.
September’s forecast is 3.1% YoY.
This sets the stage for the upcoming FED meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is likely.
The real story next week will be Jerome Powell’s words.
Markets expect several cuts by year-end, so even slightly hawkish comments could spark volatility.
I think a 3–5% pullback in September would be healthy heading into year-end.
But markets don’t care what we think — so I must stay open to all outcomes.
Right now, the market expects low inflation to continue.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% last week.
Inflation expectations have been cooling for months.
Looking deeper into the CPI report, services, energy (gasoline), and food are showing signs of re-acceleration.
This creates a tricky situation for Powell.
I expect cautious language, which could trigger more volatility.
GDP growth is estimated at ~2% for both Q3 and Q4 2025.
Not strong, not weak — just fine for a moderately accommodative FED.
Earnings
Q2 results were solid:
81% of companies beat expectations.
S&P 500 EPS up 11.7% YoY (third straight quarter of double-digit growth).
Healthy breadth across sectors.
Q3 earnings revisions by sector:
Leaders:
Information Technology +4.4% – software, semis, AI infrastructure.
Energy +4.0% – natural gas, power generators benefiting from tight supply & data center demand.
Communication Services +2.6% – digital ads, platforms, wireless.
Laggards:
Health Care –7.2%
Utilities 0%
INDEX
The S&P 500 closed the week +1.57%, hitting new highs.
All major moving averages are rising — a clear uptrend.
We’re nearing overbought territory on the weekly chart, but not there yet.
Leadership sectors:
Communications Equipment
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Tech Hardware & Peripherals
Electronics Components
Independent Power & Renewable Energy
Office REITs (boosted by data center build-outs)
Capex-related sectors like Construction, Transportation Infrastructure, and Metals & Mining also show strength.
PORTFOLIOS
10X Momentum Portfolio
My buy stop order for ASND triggered last week.
I’m now fully invested in this portfolio.Updated stop loss levels.
Top performers: FIX, IESC, MGNI.
AMTM is near its stop — let’s see how it plays out.
This portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 by 100% over the same period.
10X Underpriced Growth Portfolio
Updated stop losses this week.
Buying a small cap transitioning to profitability and growing fast.
(Details reserved for paid subscribers.)
This week, I am buying a first lot of a small cap (370M Market Cap) that is transitioning to profitability and is experimenting very rapid growth. This is reserved for paid supporters.
