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Tariffs -> Inflation -> Growth Fears -> Market Decline?
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Tariffs -> Inflation -> Growth Fears -> Market Decline?

March 23, 2025 - Update

Giovanni C.'s avatar
Giovanni C.
Mar 23, 2025
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10X CAPITAL POT
Tariffs -> Inflation -> Growth Fears -> Market Decline?
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Quick Update this week.

MACRO

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  • The next M2 data point will be released next Tuesday.

    • If M2 continues to shrink, it could negatively affect the markets in the short term.

  • Inflation appears to be easing, with a March 2025 forecast at 2.46%.

    • The main wild card is tariffs, which are difficult to predict in terms of timing and impact on inflation.

  • In short, tariff-related inflation uncertainty could suggest a more cautious monetary policy, leading to less credit, slower growth, and softer earnings.

    • This scenario lowers expectations for S&P 500 multiples.

  • To improve market sentiment, we’d need a shift from a restrictive to a neutral or expansionary policy.

    • A weaker economy could force that shift, but nobody wants slower growth coupled with inflation—fueling “stagflation” fears.

  • For now, these concerns need time to resolve. Current data shows:

    • Inflation is declining.

    • Th…

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