Still a Bull Market: Why I’m Treating This as a Correction
November 23, 2025 - Update
Market View
My current stance is that we are in a bull market that will continue into 2026.
Corrections are normal and to be expected, and I believe we are in the middle of one.
Has anything significant shifted in the past few weeks?
The only meaningful change I see is that net liquidity has been declining for several weeks. For a stronger “risk-on” environment, we need this trend to reverse.
This week we’ll get fresh M2 data, which will be useful: higher liquidity is what I want to see.
Credit conditions look fine, as banks are not tightening in a meaningful way.
Inflation for October and November should stay around 3%. Here are current forecasts:
The Truflation Index suggests we are actually in a 2.37% inflation environment right now, which supports the idea that we don’t have an inflation spike coming in the near term.
What about GDP?
Growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be around 2.3%.
In a nutshell: the US economic environment remains positive. Rates should keep trending lower over the next 6–12 months (whatever the exact pace of rate cuts), while earnings growth remains supportive for the stock market.
My only concern is valuations. We are not in bubble territory, but it is not easy to find real bargains. Corrections in this environment are to be expected.
Indexes
Below is my weekly AI-aided chart analysis.
What concerns me is the MACD crossing below the signal line. I still see this as a buying opportunity, but we may not be done yet with this correction.
S&P 500 (SPX) — Weekly
Stage: Still Stage 2 (uptrend), but late and fragile.
What the chart shows
Price has pulled back ~6% from the high and closed just under/near the 10-week EMA, while the 30-week MA is still rising.
RSI is around 57 (bullish zone but slipping).
MACD has rolled over; the histogram is negative and expanding.
We’ve had two recent distribution weeks; this is the first meaningful test of the 10-week since the spring rally.
Levels that matter
Resistance: 10-week EMA ~6,630–6,650.
A weekly close back above this area with stronger up-volume would re-affirm Stage 2.Support: 6,500–6,520 (recent weekly low), then ~6,400–6,450 (30-week MA + prior highs).
The primary uptrend is intact (30-week MA rising), but momentum is fading. The index is vulnerable to a test of the 30-week MA if the 10-week keeps rejecting price.
Portfolios
I will be doing nothing over the upcoming week.
I might decide to do some buying in my long-term portfolio if next week is another down week.
Before sharing my portfolio updates (details below), I want to highlight the mini-charts of the best-performing stocks from my watchlist.
Broadly speaking, they share the key characteristics I look for: growing sales and profitability at a fair or favorable price.
10X Momentum Portfolio
I was stopped out of MU with a 5% gain.
I am not taking new trades this week.
I have updated my stop-loss level for KRYS.
10X Underpriced Growth Portfolio
Here I was stopped out of POWL with an 8.5% gain.
I am now mostly in cash in this portfolio and I’m not buying anything this week.
Quick recap
Still bullish into 2026, but in the middle of a normal correction.
Macro backdrop (growth, inflation, rates) remains supportive for equities.
Main risk is valuation, not macro or liquidity collapse at this stage.
S&P 500 is in a late Stage 2 uptrend with weakening momentum.
I am patient: raising cash on stops, waiting for better entries rather than forcing trades.
Let’s see what next week brings.
Best of luck to you all!
Important: This post is not investment advice.
Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.
What's your view on the Nvidia balance sheet issues? a lot of receivebles and sbc are not a good sign for the queen of the castle?