Stage 2 Still On: Weekly S&P 500 Read and My Trades for the Week Ahead
January 11, 2026 - Update
Photo by Joshua Sortino on Unsplash
Today is January 11th, and the S&P 500 is already up +1.8% year to date. A positive start.
From a macro perspective, there is not much I can add to my view from the last several months. This environment is supportive for stocks. In a nutshell:
Liquidity and credit availability are improving.
Inflation looks under control.
Earnings and revenue growth expectations for 2026 have improved over the past few months.
Employment is sending mixed signals, but it is not too weak or too hot.
Productivity is trending up strongly. This is likely helped by AI, robotics, software, and other tech advances.
On the other side, valuations remain elevated. They are not crazy high. Still, volatility can spike at any time. Geopolitics look unpredictable right now. Sometimes it feels more like a Hollywood movie than reality.
Let’s have a look at the index.
INDEX
The market closed the week up +1.57%. Here is my AI-assisted assessment of the weekly chart.
S&P 500 weekly (week ending Jan 9, 2026) — Stage Analysis read
1) Stage & trend
Still Stage 2 (advancing). Price is above a rising 30-week moving average, and the long-term trend is up.
In Weinstein terms, Stage 2 is where you want to be invested. That is true as long as price respects the rising long-term average and does not break key support levels.
2) What changed this week
New/confirmed highs. The weekly close of 6966.28 (+1.57%) pushed above the prior reference area around 6920 (recent high label on the chart).
There is no meaningful overhead resistance now. New highs mean “open sky,” which often makes trends easier to sustain.
3) Moving averages (trend structure)
10W ~ 6820, 20W ~ 6730, 30W ~ 6584, 40W ~ 6367.
All are stacked in a bullish way (shorter above longer) and sloping up. This is a classic Stage 2 structure.
4) Volume (confirmation)
Weekly volume ~ 16.10B vs. ~ 14.48B 10-week average.
That is above average on an up week. It supports the breakout and continuation.
5) Momentum (important nuance)
RSI ~ 65.5. Bullish, but not extreme.
MACD histogram is slightly negative (line under signal). Momentum is cooling even while price rises.
Translation: the trend is up, but a pause or pullback would be normal.
Implications for the coming weeks
Base case: Stage 2 is intact. Bias stays bullish, but expect consolidation rather than a straight line up.
Healthy pullback scenario: drift back toward 6820–6730 on lighter volume, then resume higher.
Risk scenario: a drop back under 6820, then 6730. The trend is not “dead,” but you move from “press” to “defend.”
PORTFOLIOS
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
My buy stop order for STEP was triggered last week. I updated my stop-loss levels. Here is what the portfolio looks like today:
I have one full position in KRYS that is working very well. I have one half position in AFRM and one half position in STEP, which is my last add.
Total return as of today is +190% (47% annualized). In April, this portfolio will turn 3 years old.
Here is what I am doing this week, given the current positive environment:
I am issuing a buy order for 50 shares of STEP. This will bring me to a full position.
I am issuing a buy order for 45 shares of AFRM. This will bring me to a full position.
I am issuing a buy stop order for 215 shares of WT (WisdomTree, Inc.) if it touches $13.5. If triggered, my first stop will be placed at $11.39.
WisdomTree, Inc. operates as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) sponsor and asset manager. It offers ETFs in equities, currencies, fixed income, and alternative asset classes. WT grew revenues at 12% and is expected to grow at about 20% per year over the next two years. WT’s profitability is improving rapidly, and it looks undervalued at current prices. Below is the current weekly chart of WT.
I like that price is pushing out of a confluence area of key moving averages. I like last week’s volume. I also like that the MACD line is close to crossing above the signal line. If it moves above 14, it could run well from there.
10X – 2026 PICKS PORTFOLIO
In my last post, I shared my best 10 stock ideas for 2026. Full story here: (link).
This is what the history books show so far:
2023: +54% vs. +26% (S&P 500)
2024: +138% vs. +25% (S&P 500)
2025: +36.1% vs. +16.4% (S&P 500)
Here is what the 2026 portfolio looks like today:
ZETA, EVR, HALO, and GLBE had a very good start to the year. On average, the portfolio is up 3.1% vs. 0.18% for the S&P 500.
Of course, it is way too early to call any meaningful trend. Still, I’m happy the portfolio started on the right foot.
10X BEST OF ARKK PORTFOLIO
Next week, I’ll be rebalancing my Best of ARKK portfolio. This experiment keeps working well. After more than one year, it has produced a 93% annualized return. It is also ahead of the ARKK Innovation Fund by 57 percentage points over the same period. Below is where the portfolio sits right now.
10X – UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO
As mentioned several weeks ago, I am closing this portfolio. I am left with one position only: BTSG. I raised my stop loss to $36.9. I’m up about 11% on BTSG. As soon as I am stopped out, I will close this portfolio.
That’s all for the week! I wish you all the best for 2026! And a special thank you to those of you that decided to support my research by choosing the paid subscription. Remenber you can join anytime to support me or even give the subscription as a gift.
That’s all for the week! I wish you all the best for 2026!
A special thank you to those of you who decided to support my research by choosing the paid subscription.
Remember, you can join anytime to support me. You can also give a subscription as a gift.
Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclosure: The content has been reviewed using artificial intelligence to enhance readability and ensure grammatical accuracy.
Nice update Giovanni!! Happy next week!!