Short-Term Caution, Mid-Term Optimism: My 10X Portfolios Update

Jan 12th, 2025

Short-term, the market looks “toppish.” On the daily chart, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are pointing down, while the 50-day and 200-day MAs are still trending up. Price sits below the 50-day MA. On the weekly chart, the NASDAQ remains in an uptrend and is about 7–8% above its 200-day (40-week) MA.

Investors worry that a strong economy could reignite inflation, which might push the Fed from cutting rates to hiking them. This uncertainty makes things choppy for swing traders, since volatility often spikes with major news or economic data. Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration could add to the chaos, and earnings season will bring even more headlines.

The December 2024 CPI reading (due on the 15th) is expected at 2.86%, while January 2025’s nowcast is 2.79%. Financial conditions remain safe, so recession risk is low. The GDP Nowcast shows +2.36% …