Short-Term Caution, Mid-Term Optimism: My 10X Portfolios Update
Jan 12th, 2025
Short-term, the market looks “toppish.” On the daily chart, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are pointing down, while the 50-day and 200-day MAs are still trending up. Price sits below the 50-day MA. On the weekly chart, the NASDAQ remains in an uptrend and is about 7–8% above its 200-day (40-week) MA.
Investors worry that a strong economy could reignite inflation, which might push the Fed from cutting rates to hiking them. This uncertainty makes things choppy for swing traders, since volatility often spikes with major news or economic data. Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration could add to the chaos, and earnings season will bring even more headlines.
The December 2024 CPI reading (due on the 15th) is expected at 2.86%, while January 2025’s nowcast is 2.79%. Financial conditions remain safe, so recession risk is low. The GDP Nowcast shows +2.36% for Q4 2024 and +2.74% for Q1 2025, which looks more like a “soft takeoff” than a soft landing.
I’m still bullish mid-term, but short-term indicators tell me to stay cautious. I’m adjusting my stop losses and will remain on the sidelines until the 20-day MA points up.
PORTFOLIOS
10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH
Stop losses triggered for both positions in Block (SQ), resulting in losses of 11.2% and 16.8%.
AEHR and HITI orders were executed.
I updated my stop loss levels.
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
My MGNI order was filled.
I now have three open positions and plenty of cash.
Stop loss levels have been updated.
10X LONG TERM PORTFOLIOS (link)
For those who’ve been reading for a while, you know I started this blog with two long-term portfolios that I intended never to touch. In hindsight, that approach no longer makes sense.
I now have access to cleaner fundamental data. I can see if a promising company keeps delivering or if a quality stock remains high quality.
As a result, I’m cleaning up my long-term portfolios by removing stocks that no longer fit the criteria for a high-quality, long-term investment and keeping those that do.
Here’s what I sold:
AbCellera Biologics Inc
Aterian Inc
Atkore Inc
Digital Turbine Inc
Dutch Bros Inc
Curiositystream Inc
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc
Fisker
Fiverr International Ltd
GrowGeneration Corp
Green Thumb Industries Inc
Kulicke And Soffa Industries Inc
Nvitae
Perion Network Ltd Common Stock
Palantir Technologies Inc
Peloton Interactive Inc
Super Micro Computer Inc
Snap Inc
Shockwave
A few of these companies (Fisker, Nvitae) went bankrupt. Shockwave was acquired instead.
Below is the updated long-term portfolio.
I currently have 14 open positions.
Since the portfolio’s inception in May 2021, it has returned 18% (21% below the index) and 4.6% annually.
Moving forward, I’ll make only occasional adjustments (buys/sells), keeping with a long-term strategy. I plan to add “super companies” when they appear attractively priced.
OTHER PORTFOLIOS
10X 2025 PICKS PORTFOLIO (link)
It’s still early, but this portfolio is outperforming the index (+2.8% vs. -1%).
10X BEST OF ARKK PORTFOLIO (link)
This portfolio is based on a selection of stocks from Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund. Launched on October 15, 2024, it’s currently up +46% versus the ARKK ETF’s +21%.
I review it every three months. By next weekend, I’ll sell any holdings that no longer fit my criteria, add any new ones that do, and keep the total at 10–12 stocks.
That’s all for this week!
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Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclosure: The content has been reviewed using artificial intelligence to enhance readability and ensure grammatical accuracy.