Semis to take a break?

June 23, 2024 - Update

Current Economic and Market Conditions: A Snapshot

Monetary Policy

• Still Restrictive: The pace of restriction has slowed, indicating the FED is waiting for better data to consider easing.

Credit Conditions

• Slight Improvement: Banks are slightly increasing loans after a long period of decline.

Inflation

• Current CPI: Slightly better than expected at 3.3% YoY.

• Inflation Nowcast: Predicts a 3.1% reading for the next report.

GDP Forecast

• Q2 Forecast: 3% growth, suggesting a strong economy that does not urgently need rate cuts.

Treasury Yields

• 10-Year Treasury: Currently in a downtrend.

Oil Prices

• Rising: Although the price of oil is up, the overall macroeconomic environment remains favorable for stocks.

Index Performance

NASDAQ

• Weekly Performance: Closed at 0%, showing signs of tiredness.

• Chart Analysis: Healthy, with prices above key moving averages.

• Rotation Indication: NASDAQ is underperforming the SP500, hinting at possible sector rotation away from technology, particularly semiconductors.