Risk-On Setup for 2026? Inflation, Liquidity, and My Weekly Portfolio Moves
January 18, 2026 - Update
MACRO
Last week we got better-than-expected Core Inflation data (0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected).
The current forecast for January inflation is 2.3%, down from 2.7% registered in December.
Coupled with improving net liquidity in the US and global liquidity worldwide, the environment still looks constructive for stocks and risk assets.
Credit conditions and credit availability are just fine.
My base case remains positive for stocks in the next few months. I expect brief corrections, which should represent buying opportunities.
The wildcard remains geopolitics. The latest developments in Venezuela, and most recently what might happen in Greenland, could become sources of strong turbulence. The US President declared he will impose new tariffs on European countries that recently sent troops to Greenland… this could escalate and bring fresh volatility.
Remember March–April last year? Let’s hope we don’t get anything similar!
THE INDEX
Below is my AI-assisted analysis of the S&P 500 weekly chart.
S&P 500 weekly (week ending 16 Jan 2026) — what the chart says
1) Trend / “Stage” read (Weinstein lens)
Still Stage 2 (uptrend): price is above rising 30-week and 40-week MAs, and those longer MAs are clearly sloping up.
The train is still going north, but it’s slowing into a station (momentum is fading near highs).
2) Price action this week
Down week of about -0.38%, closing near 6940 after making a marginal new high near ~6986
Weekly range was ~1.45%, so not a panic bar — more like controlled selling / digestion
3) Moving averages (distance = how stretched you are)
Close vs 10-week MA ~6841: ~+1.4%
Close vs 20-week MA ~6754: ~+2.8%
Close vs 30-week MA ~6616: ~+4.9%
Close vs 40-week MA ~6406: ~+8.3%
Translation: still bullish, but not wildly extended. A pullback to the 10-/20-week would be “normal.”
4) Volume (institutional footprint)
Volume was above the 10-week average by roughly ~16%, while price finished down.
That’s a mild distribution tell. One week doesn’t change the trend, but it increases the odds of a near-term pause/pullback.
5) Momentum (MACD / RSI)
MACD histogram is negative and MACD is below its signal → uptrend intact, momentum cooling
RSI around ~64 → bullish regime (above 50), but not accelerating
Practical implications
Base case: sideways-to-slight pullback looks more likely than a clean breakout right now, because momentum is fading and volume expanded on a down week.
Bull continuation signal: weekly close back above ~7000 with improving MACD histogram (less negative / turning up).
Caution signal: weekly close below the 10-week, followed by failure to reclaim it (often leads to a 20-week test).
PORTFOLIOS
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
My last week order for WT was triggered. I also have full positions in AFRM and STEP.
WT started very well (+12%), and STEP also had a strong week (+5.7%), while AFRM had a bad one (-11%).
Below is my complete portfolio with updated Stop Loss levels.
Total return: 204% since inception (49% annualized).
This week’s plan
I want to complete my full position in WT using the available cash in the account.
So I’m issuing a BUY STOP order for 165 shares of WT if it touches $15.2.
10X BEST OF ARKK PORTFOLIO
It’s time to rebalance my “10X Best of ARKK Portfolio.”
At this link you can read about this experiment I started back in October 2024, to test my stock-picking methodology.
So what am I doing? To follow the same process all over again.
Step 1: Find all stocks included in the ARKK funds
Today, I found 129 stocks Cathie Wood is invested in right now:
ABNB, ABSI, ACHR, ADPT, ADYEN, AIR, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, ARCT, ATAI, AUR, AVAV, AVGO, BABA, BEAM, BFLY, BIDU, BLSH, BMNR, BWXT, BYDDY, CAI, CAT, CCJ, CDNA, CERS, CMPS, COIN, CRCL, CRM, CRSP, CRWD, CRWV, DASH, DDOG, DE, DKNG, DSY, DSY FP, ESLT, ETHQ, ETOR, FUTU, GENI, GH, GLBE, GOOG, GRMN, GTLB, HEI, HO, HON, HOOD, ICE, ILMN, INCY, INTU, IONS, IRDM, ISRG, JOBY, KDK, KLAR, KMTUY, KSPI, KTOS, LAB, LHX, LMT, LUNR, MASS, MELI, META, NET, NFLX, NRIX, NTLA, NTRA, NU, NVDA, NXDR, OKLO, PACB, PD, PINS, PLTR, PONY, PRME, PRNT, PSNL, PSTG, PYPL, QCOM, QSI, RBLX, RBRK, RKLB, ROKU, RXRX, SDGR, SE, SHOP, SLMT, SNPS, SOFI, SOLQ, SPOT, SRTA, SYM, TDY, TEM, TER, TOST, TRMB, TSLA, TSM, TTD, TWST, TXG, U, VCYT, VEEV, VRTX, WGS, WRD, XYZ, Z.
Step 2: Apply growth + size + earnings surprise filters
I keep companies that are expected to grow at least 15% on average over the next 2 fiscal years, and that also have:
TTM revenue ≥ $100M
Market cap ≥ $75M
A revenue surprise in their last quarterly earnings call
Step 3: Quality + improvement + valuation filters
Using clean data, I examined the 55 stocks left, and kept only those that are:
Profitable
Improving profitability (ROA)
Investing in themselves (expanding Asset Growth)
Improving earnings margins
Fairly valued or somewhat undervalued
Summary
==CONFIRMED==
Stocks already in the portfolio that made it again:
AMD, HOOD, TOST, VCYT, GLBE, TSM, KSPI
==OUT==
Stocks that did not make it:
GENI, RBRK, DASH
==NEW==
3 new stocks that made it:
FUTU, AIR, SYM
Below is what the portfolio looks like today.
This portfolio has performed wonders: +124% since inception (+90% annualized).
Most importantly, it has delivered +51% more than the ARKK Innovation Fund Index, which gained +72% over the same period.
I will rebalance again in mid-April.
10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO
My last position (BTSG) hit the stop loss and I sold it at $36.9 for an 8.7% gain.
This portfolio is now closed. I’m working on a new project / portfolio.
Final notes
That’s all for the week!
On Monday, the US market will be closed. Let’s see how things develop next week.
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Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclosure: The content has been reviewed using artificial intelligence to enhance readability and ensure grammatical accuracy.