Relief Rally or Real Recovery? (Plus: 2 New '10X Double' Picks)
The tape is improving, but the damage remains. A deep dive into market breadth, sector rotation, and why I’m issuing new Buy Stop orders for ZVRA and DELL.
Market Update: Relief Rally or Real Reversal?
One more week into the conflict. Let’s look at whether the macro landscape has shifted in a meaningful way.
Photo by Linda Gerbec on Unsplash
Oil Prices: Closed 3% below last week. While a welcome cooling, it is too early to call this a definitive trend.
10-Year Treasury: Slightly improved versus last week, but remains in a “wait and see” posture.
Inflation: Looking at Truflation data, the number recently improved to 1.34%. No signs of panic here.
Financial Conditions: These continue to deteriorate. We aren’t at a panic threshold yet, but I am watching closely for a 2021-2022 style path where prolonged deterioration led to a significant bear market.
The Bottom Line: The market is in a holding pattern. The Fed hasn’t shifted its posture, hoping the crisis remains short-lived. Since nobody knows the duration of this conflict, staying prepared for all scenarios and exercising patience is the only logical move.
Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. AI tools used for editing.
S&P 500 Weekly: The Weinstein View
1. Stage Analysis
Despite a strong rebound week, the index closed at approximately 6583 (+3.36%), which remains below all key weekly moving averages:
10-week: ~6733
20-week: ~6796
30-week: ~6714
40-week: ~6664
The rally has improved the “tone,” but it hasn’t repaired the structural damage. In Weinstein terms, this still looks like early Stage 4 behavior, not a fresh buy signal.
2. What the Tape Says
The verdict: A bounce, not a breakout.
Price: Remains trapped under the weekly moving average cluster.
Volume: Improved, but we haven’t seen the “heavy footprints” of massive institutional re-accumulation.
Indicators: MACD remains negative; RSI (46) recovered from oversold levels but lacks “real” momentum.
Breadth & Sectors: Signs of Life
The Good News: Market breadth improved from 31.4% to 38.3%. This tells us the market is no longer in freefall and participation is widening. The Reality Check: 38% is still weak. We are lifting off the floor, but we aren’t in a “healthy” environment yet.
Sector Performance
This was a broad rebound week led by “Risk-On” sectors:
XLK (Technology): +6.66%
SPHB (High Beta): +4.97%
XLI (Industrials): +4.57%
Despite the bounce, most major sectors are still flagged as WEAK in my model. The only true leaders remain XLE (Energy) and XLB (Materials). We have tactical strength, but no new leadership structure yet.
Thematic Watchlist: Scouting for Future Leadership
While the broad sector indices show us where the “Big Money” is parked, these thematic ETFs act as our early warning system for speculative alpha. This week’s rebounds were aggressive, signaling where the market is most “coiled”:
UFO (Space): +15.7%
XBI (Biotech Innovation): +8.6%
URNM (Uranium Miners): +8.5%
SMH (Semiconductors): +8.2%
ITA (Defense): +5.3%
The Strategy: I’m not buying these ETFs blindly. Instead, I am using them to identify the ponds where the biggest fish live. When an ETF like XBI or UFO bounces 10-15% in a week, it tells me that institutional appetite for risk is returning to those specific niches. My job now is to scan these themes for individual stocks that are building “Stage 1” bases or showing “Relative Strength” versus the S&P 500.
The Caveat: Many of these names are still “bouncing” inside broken technical structures. They go on the Watchlist, not the “Buy” list—we want to see them prove they can hold these gains before we commit capital.
Bottom line
The tape has improved, but it has not turned bullish.
This was a relief rally inside a damaged market.
For investors, the correct stance is still:
patient
selective
cash-heavy
focused on watchlists, not aggressive buying
The market is trying to tell us a low may be forming.
It has not yet proved that the low is in.
PORTFOLIO UPDATES
1. 10X Long-Term Portfolio
I recently added AVGO, APP, and RDDT to this core group. My goal is to increase the focus on this portfolio while maintaining a “low-turnover” discipline.
SELL: CELH (Celsius Holdings) I am exiting my position at the market open. The valuation is no longer attractive relative to its growth trajectory.
Final Performance: +54% total return since inception (~10% annualized).
ADD: HIMS, MU, and AMD
HIMS & Hers Health: Already a star performer in the portfolio (+300% total, ~40% annualized). I view this as a high-upside play for the next 5+ years.
Micron (MU): Currently holding a +273% return. I believe MU has the structural tailwinds to 2x or 3x from here over the next few years.
AMD: We are already up +115% on our current position. At current levels, I still see a clear path to a 2x return over the next few years.
2. 10X Momentum Portfolio
This portfolio remains heavy in cash as we wait for the market to prove its strength. Our sole position, SNDX, is performing well.
Trade Management (SNDX): I am raising the stop loss to $22.10. This brings the trade to breakeven, meaning from here on, we are playing with “house money.”
NEW ORDER: AMD (Buy Stop)
Trigger: Buy if price touches $218.
Stop Loss: $195.
Rationale: AMD is growing at >30% with improving margins and is trading below my fair-value model. It has consolidated for months; this order triggers only if it starts its next leg up.
3. 10X 2026 Picks (The Yearly Portfolio)
Three months into 2026, the portfolio is down -8% versus the S&P 500’s -4%. This feels remarkably like early 2025 during the “tariff madness” volatility.
I am not concerned yet. The fundamentals remain excellent: every company in this portfolio delivered a “revenue surprise” during the last earnings cycle. Forward revenue growth ranges from +13% (FSLR) to +39% (HROW). This is a 12-month “buy and hold” strategy—we have 9 months left to let the thesis play out.
4. 10X Doubles: “Mispriced Excellence”
This is my newest strategy, and I’m incredibly excited about the potential here. We look for businesses where the market expects mediocrity, but the Adjusted Return on Assets (ROA) suggests elite performance.
The Filter: I target companies where analysts project an adjusted ROA of 25% to 40%+, but the stock price implies a much lower long-term return. When that gap is wide (30–70 points), and the chart shows a Stage 1 or Stage 2 base, I strike.
This Week’s Moves: I am issuing two BUY STOP orders. These are half-positions (2.5–3.5% each) to account for the current geopolitical volatility.
DELL: Buy 14 shares if it touches $175. (Stop Loss: $140).
ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics): Buy 260 shares if it touches $9.50. (Stop Loss: $7.60).
Note: ZVRA is a biotech innovation play; we add slowly here to manage the inherent volatility.
The Watchlist
Paid members can access the live 10X Potential Doubles Watchlist via the link below. Since I launched the list on March 27th, the average gain across all tracked names has been +6.2% in just one week.
