Quick Update: Inflation, Markets, and Momentum Portfolios – What's Ahead?

Jan 15th, 2023 - Update

Very quick update for this shorter-than-usual week.

As you probably know, the CPI reading for Dec 2023 was higher than expected (3.4% vs. 3.3% expected).

Looking at most economic data, I cannot find anything truly concerning regarding an impending recession.

The most concerning aspect is geopolitical, with the Suez Canal crisis that might bring inflation concerns in the short term if a solution is not found shortly.

Still, the forecasted inflation reading for January, to be released on February 13th says that we should get a 2.95% YoY inflation.

As mentioned many times, the economy goes into recession via credit tightening, which is caused most of the time by monetary tightening and higher interest rates set by central banks.

Well, when looking at liquidity measures like M2 or the Net Liquidity I see improvement and not clear tightening.

Looking at the SP…