One New Breakout Just Made the Cut
Stocks surged last week, liquidity kept improving, and I’m adding one new name to my momentum portfolio. But oil remains the key variable.
Last week’s message was clear
Oil fell 3.5%. The S&P 500 jumped 4.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield moved lower. Financial conditions improved. Liquidity kept getting better. Those are all good signs for stocks.
But the move was not just about economics. It was also about hope. Markets rallied on the possibility of a peace deal in the Middle East.
Now the weekend has brought fresh uncertainty. Monday may look very different. That is the truth. No drama. Just reality.
Photo by Nick Mahan on Unsplash
The economy
The backdrop remains solid.
Companies are still beating expectations. Banks are lending again. Jobs remain plentiful. Credit is available. That is usually the kind of setup that supports higher stock prices.
The market
The S&P 500 closed at 7,126. The rebound has been strong.
That said, not every momentum signal has fully confirmed the move yet. The trend is improving. It is not fully restored. This is recovery, not perfection. Keep watching.
What’s leading
Semiconductors. Robotics. Space technology. Infrastructure. Materials.
These are not random areas of strength. They are tied to the AI and automation buildout. They are tied to real-world investment. They are tied to capacity, power, chips, machines, and industrial demand.
That is where money is flowing with the most conviction.
What’s lagging
Energy is rolling over. Healthcare remains weak. Crypto, cloud, and fintech are still in downtrends.
That rotation matters. It suggests the market is favoring structural growth and real-economy themes over weaker or more speculative areas.
The key risk
One variable matters more than any other right now: oil.
If the Strait of Hormuz stays open and oil remains calm, this market likely has room to keep moving higher. If tensions flare up again, volatility can come back fast.
Watch oil first. Then adapt.
Bottom line
Stay invested. Stay selective. Keep one eye on the Middle East this weekend.
PORTFOLIOS
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
The portfolio continues to act well. This week I am raising stop-loss levels on both open positions. I am also adding a new stock.
New position: AVGO
Broadcom Inc. | Technology / Semiconductors | Entry: $407 buy stop
When a business earns 157% adjusted return on assets, has deep ties with some of the world’s largest technology companies, and trades at 25x forward earnings, it deserves attention.
When the weekly chart also shows a five-month base and a breakout to new highs above rising moving averages, it becomes actionable.
That is where Broadcom stands this week.
The fundamental case is straightforward. Broadcom has built a powerful position in custom AI accelerators and high-speed networking for hyperscale data centers. Its customer base includes some of the biggest names in tech, supported by multi-year silicon partnerships. Management sees a path to more than $100 billion in AI chip revenue from silicon alone by fiscal 2027. Some analysts see even more.
The opportunity is large. The setup is real.
The chart matters just as much. A great business bought at the wrong time can still be a bad trade. AVGO has been a high-quality company for a while. What changed now is the setup. The stock spent five months consolidating between $289 and $406. It held above rising moving averages. MACD turned positive. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 pushed to multi-year highs. On Friday, the stock broke out to all-time highs and gained 9.4%.
That is the kind of confirmation this system looks for.
There are two caveats. The MACD cross is not brand new. It happened about three to four weeks ago, not one to two. And Friday’s breakout came on slightly below-average volume. Neither point breaks the thesis. Both are simply worth noting.
The plan is clear. This is a buy stop at $407, not a market order. The position opens only if price keeps moving higher. If the stock pulls back first, the 20-week moving average near $339 becomes the key level to watch.
Position: New buy stop order for 14 shares at $407, about $5,698 total
Stop: $345, near the middle of the October to March consolidation range, about 15% below entry
The scorecard below summarizes the thesis, the risk, and the entry plan.
AVGO Weekly Chart:
10X BEST OF ARKK Portfolio
Time to review and update this portfolio.
For details on this strategy, click here.
Started in October 2024 as an experiment, this portfolio is up 124% to date, or 56% annualized, while holding 10 positions and rebalancing every three months.
The idea is simple. I take ARKK holdings and run them through my own stock-picking framework: fast growth, real sales, improving profitability, expanding assets, and reasonable valuation.
So far, that process has worked very well. The portfolio is ahead of ARKK by 56 percentage points over the same period. ARKK itself returned 67%, so this was not an easy benchmark to beat.
These are the current holdings:
April 2026 Rebalancing
After going through the full process again, here is the update:
Keep: AMD, SYM, TOST, TSM. These still qualify.
Sell: AIR, FUTU, GLBE, HOOD, KSPI, VCYT. These no longer qualify.
Add: AVGO, CRWV, LLY, MELI, RKLB, RXRX.
The updated portfolio will now hold these 10 names:
AMD, AVGO, CRWV, LLY, MELI, RKLB, RXRX, SYM, TOST, TSM
A quick note on sizing: I will use the full proceeds from the six stocks I am selling, about $11,400, and spread that capital equally across the new positions, or about $2,287 per stock.
Important: This is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10X DOUBLES PORTFOLIO
(Paid subscribers only)
TThis portfolio continues to do well. It currently holds three positions.
The watchlist now has 28 stocks. Since inception on March 27, the average return across the watchlist is 17%. Nine of the 28 stocks are up more than 20%. Four are up more than 30%.
This remains a game of patience. I want the right setup, not just activity.
Right now, nothing looks compelling enough to justify a new entry. So this week I am not adding anything to the portfolio.
Below are the current holdings and scorecard:
