10X CAPITAL POT

10X CAPITAL POT

Share this post

10X CAPITAL POT
10X CAPITAL POT
On the thin line again: inflation and recession fears
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

On the thin line again: inflation and recession fears

August 4, 2024 Update

Giovanni C.'s avatar
Giovanni C.
Aug 04, 2024
∙ Paid
1

Share this post

10X CAPITAL POT
10X CAPITAL POT
On the thin line again: inflation and recession fears
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Share

Two weeks ago, I wrote, “Right now, the backdrop remains positive for stocks unless really bad economic data starts to show up.”

The market was spooked by last week’s unemployment data, which was seen as higher than expected, driving a strong sell-off in stocks.

See below how unemployment moved to 4.3% vs. 4.1% expected.

The FED is expected to start cutting rates next September. However, if they start “too late,” the stock market typically does not react well. The question is whether we’ll go through a recession soon and, if so, how severe it will be.

It has been interesting to observe how expectations have shifted from being very pessimistic (recession coming) to optimistic (inflation might run too hot) and back again to recession fears.

The Q3 GDP Nowcast sits at 2.11%, which is not recessionary at this point.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to 10X CAPITAL POT to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Giovanni C.
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More