🌍 MACRO
Inflation came in roughly in line, but the trend is higher. Oil is above the psychological $100 mark. The 10-year is closing in on 5%.
The Fed meets next week and it’s close to a coin flip: markets are pricing a 25bp hike at roughly 50-55%. So both the decision and the tone are live.
Hormuz stays the single most important variable — as I’ve said for weeks. Odds of some kind of deal are rising: Iran needs its oil flowing too. But nothing is signed, and nothing is priced.
Cautious and defensive.
📊 INDEX
Weekly chart still in a clear uptrend, but weakening. Weekly MACD has crossed below its signal line.
🔄 SECTORS & THEMES
Technology leads, driven by semis and the AI boom. Energy second. Financials still strong. That’s what this environment is giving us — everything else is mixed or weak.
Cyclicals and Staples sit at the bottom of the table together. The consumer is suffering and rising rates don’t help. But Staples are not a destination here: this isn’t a growth scare, it’s an energy shock.
The themes table shows the same picture with more granularity.
💼 PORTFOLIOS
10X Momentum
Every position red. No stops moved. Let’s see how the week goes.
10X Easy Doubles Portfolio
Entered ASND last week. Portfolio attached.
What I am doing this coming week.
If on Friday before the close:
LEGN is below $18.50 → I sell
UPST is below $25 → I sell
On UPST: I still see very high potential. But rising rates are hurting the business — consumer loan demand slows. When that reverses (Hormuz reopening, anyone?), the stock can move fast.
That’s all for today! Let’s see what next week will bring us!
Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. AI tools used for editing.