My "2024 7-picks" performance YTD, 3 new Buys and my macro take.
June 30, 2024 Update
MACRO
M2 Data: Shows an uptick, hinting at a possible reversal. Indicates the FED may be moving towards a more accommodative monetary policy.
Credit Conditions: Away from the "danger zone". Financial conditions are improving with the index below 0 and trending down.
GDP Growth: Revised to 2.1% for Q2 2024, down from the recent 3% forecast, suggesting a slight economic slowdown.
Inflation Forecasts: For June 2024 are 3.1%, down from May 2024's 3.3%.
Rate Cuts: The road to rate cuts looks clearer, and beneficial for stocks in the mid-term, barring geopolitical or severe economic issues.
INDEXES
NASDAQ: Closed the week barely positive. Still healthy with prices above key moving averages, all with a positive slope.
Equal Weight SP500: Closed 0.4% down, reflecting a selective market with concentrated participation in a few names, mainly Tech and Semiconductors.
We keep being in a very selective market where participation has been concentrated in a few names, especially in the Tech and the Semiconductor sectors.
The NASDAQ is still healthy, with price above all key moving averages. The slope of all moving averages is positive.
SECTORS
Below is the Equal weight indexes performance over the last 6 months.
Interesting to see how the Nasdaq and the SPY have been outperforming all equal-weighted sector indexes, reflecting a concentrated market as mentioned above: relatively few big stocks have done very well in 2024. Nvidia is the best example of such a type of stock.
THEMATIC ETFs
Here is the performance over the last 6 months of the ETF I track to have a sense of what is changing in the market:
At the top Semiconductors, Crypto, and Tech are the ones beating the index (in grey).
What catches my eye:
Software is gaining, driven by the AI wave.
Energy is showing strength.
Clean Energy and Solar sectors are underperforming.
Strong bounce last week from Regional Banks.
A market that continues to be dominated by the #AI and Robotics revolution and what goes with it.
PORTFOLIOS
Let’s start with the “7-picks” 2024 Portfolio. After a 54% average gain in 2023, I did it again creating a 7-picks Portfolio.
After 6 months my “7 Picks for 2024” portfolio keeps performing at +43% Year to date, almost 3X the SP500 performance over the same period.
Three big winners so far, two around 0%, and two losers at this point. Looking at fundamentals, the looks still good. APP, ZETA, and BMBL have significant upside from my POV.
Let’s see what happens over the next 6 months.
MOMENTUM PORTFOLIOS
As mentioned a few times, I am going to have one momentum portfolio (POT) moving forward. I’ll be closing my 10X SMALL BETS MOMENTUM portfolio as soon as I exit my positions. I will transform my 10X LARGE CAP momentum portfolio into my one and only 10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO which will include either large or small caps.
10X SMALL BETS MOMENTUM POT
I have updated my Stop Loss levels
All stocks look good, with CMPO 0.00%↑ showing some strength and recovery last week on volume.
10X LARGE CAP MOMENTUM POT
Here I was stopped from PDD 0.00%↑ for a 5% gain. Unfortunately it looks is not yet (again) the time for Chinese stocks to get going. More patience will be needed.
I updated my Stop Loss levels above
This week I’ll try to enter 3 trades.
I am creating a BUY STOP ORDER for 180 HOOD 0.00%↑ shares if it touches USD 23.45. First Stop Loss at 18.50
HOOD 0.00%↑ is a stock that has a significant upside IMO if we keep moving into a more dovish monetary environment.
HOOD is part of the Crypto theme and has a Market Cap of 19BN
Then I am creating a BUY STOP ORDER for 232 shares of ZETA 0.00%↑ if it touches USD 17.67. First Stop Loss at 14.9
ZETA is part of the software AI theme and has a market cap of 3.8BN
Last, I am creating a BUY STOP ORDER for 320 shares of PYCR 0.00%↑ if it touches USD 17.67. First Stop Loss at 11.5
That’s all for the week!
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Important: This is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.