Market at a Crossroads: Key Signals, Portfolio Moves & My First eBook!

February 9, 2025 - Update

Market & Portfolio Update

MACRO OUTLOOK: Walking a Fine Line

The market is sending mixed signals:

• Monetary policy remains tight. M2 money supply isn’t growing, signaling the FED's focus on stabilizing prices. I want to see M2 rising again soon.

• Inflation is improving. I expect next week’s data to surprise positively. The January CPI should be slightly better than December, and February better than January.

• The economy remains strong. Q1 2025 GDP growth is forecasted at 3.1%—a solid pace.

• The 10-year Treasury yield has been declining since mid-January, easing financial conditions.

What to Watch:

The ideal scenario? Better-than-expected inflation, strong earnings, solid guidance, and moderate economic data. This mix could push the FED to start cutting rates.

Risks to avoid:

• Bad inflation data. If inflation spikes again, rate cuts could be delayed.

• Banks tightenin…