M2 Rising, Credit Strong, S&P 500 Bounces: Why I'm Watching Tech and Innovation

April 27, 2025 - Update

Another short commentary from me this week.

Last week, M2 data was released, and it looks good — M2 continues to tick higher at a moderate pace.

On the credit availability side, all looks good. This remains my most important backbone indicator.

The GDP Nowcast from the New York Fed estimates Q1 YoY real GDP growth at 2.6% and Q2 at 2.7%.

Inflation Nowcast and Trueflation are also not showing any concerning signs.

Growth is fine, inflation is fine, credit is fine, monetary policy is okay so far, and it should move in the right direction from here.

The 10-year Treasury yield is calming down around 4.2%. Earnings season is progressing well too — with 36% of S&P 500 companies having reported so far, 73% have beaten expectations, and guidance looks okay as well.

Last week, the tech sector and communication services were among the stronger performers, possibly s…