M2 Rising, Credit Strong, S&P 500 Bounces: Why I'm Watching Tech and Innovation
April 27, 2025 - Update
Another short commentary from me this week.
Last week, M2 data was released, and it looks good — M2 continues to tick higher at a moderate pace.
On the credit availability side, all looks good. This remains my most important backbone indicator.
The GDP Nowcast from the New York Fed estimates Q1 YoY real GDP growth at 2.6% and Q2 at 2.7%.
Inflation Nowcast and Trueflation are also not showing any concerning signs.
Growth is fine, inflation is fine, credit is fine, monetary policy is okay so far, and it should move in the right direction from here.
The 10-year Treasury yield is calming down around 4.2%. Earnings season is progressing well too — with 36% of S&P 500 companies having reported so far, 73% have beaten expectations, and guidance looks okay as well.
Last week, the tech sector and communication services were among the stronger performers, possibly signaling that the market could start betting on tech again.
We are living through very interesting and promising times when it comes to innovation and technology — sectors I want to continue betting on.
What’s left? A market that was — and still is — spooked by the recent crazy tariff madness we've witnessed over the last few weeks.
INDEX
Looking at the S&P 500, we closed last week up 4.6%, with a beautiful engulfing green candle — a pattern that bodes well for the coming week.
On the daily chart below, the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending up — the first sign of a possible trend reversal. Unfortunately, the 20-day SMA is still trending down, which means I can't buy any stocks in my short- and mid-term portfolios yet. I need to see the 20-day SMA start pointing upward before buying again.
PORTFOLIOS
I'm not doing anything new this week.
Paid supporters can access all my portfolios [here].
For those curious, here are some of my favorite stocks from my watchlist right now: ADMA, HOOD, BCRX, SGHC, CACI, BLBD, EXEL, LRN.
hat’s all for this week — let’s see what next week brings!
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Important:
this is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.