Liquidity Is Turning: Why I’m Still Bullish as My 2025 Portfolio Doubles the S&P 500
November 30, 2025 - Update
From a macro perspective, things are improving because there are signs of rising net liquidity.
If this reversal is confirmed over the next few weeks, we could see a strong rebound in risk assets like stocks and crypto.
The market is pricing in an 84% chance of a Fed cut in December.
Inflation should stay below 3% over the next two CPI reports, while GDP growth looks fine at around 2% for Q4 2025 (forecast).
I always look at credit conditions for businesses as the most important leading indicator.
The overall picture is getting better when looking at the next few weeks and months.
For that reason, I remain bullish over the same period of time on the stock market.
Of course, short-term corrections are always possible and normal during mid- to long-term uptrends.
INDEX
The S&P 500 was up 3.7% for the week and is not far from all-time highs again.
Stage & trend posture
Stage 2 (advancing):
Price is above a rising 30–40-week MA and also above a rising 10/20-week stack.Character:
The uptrend is orderly but a bit extended versus the 10-week; candles are tight → healthy digestion is possible without breaking the trend.
Evidence checklist
30-week MA slope: Clearly up → confirms Stage 2.
10/20-week MAs: Rising and acting as near-term support; brief undercuts have been bought.
MACD (weekly): Positive but flattening → favors pause/rotation over sharp acceleration.
RSI (weekly): Low–mid 60s → bullish but not overheated.
Volume: No distribution cluster; rallies on acceptable volume.
Breadth
Combined % of stocks above the 50/150/200-day = ~51.5% → neutral, improving.
NYSE breadth > Nasdaq breadth → tilt toward cyclicals/financials/industrials/healthcare rather than a pure mega-cap tech chase.
Key takeaways
The primary trend is up (Stage 2); momentum is slowing → expect rotation and digestion.
Risk is defined by the 30-week MA; adds on 10–20-week dips are preferred.
Leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap tech; lean into Healthcare/Energy/Industrials/Financials while staying selective and managing risk via the MA “guardrails”.
Volatility
The VIX is at 16, well below 20, which is a clear indicator of a market getting back to a “less worried” posture.
Sentiment is improving, although many indicators are still in “extreme fear” territory.
This leaves the door open for more upside over the next few weeks.
PORTFOLIOS
Let’s see where I am with my 2025 Pick Portfolio.
With one month to go, the Portfolio is up +33% YTD, while the S&P 500 is up +16.6%, so my 2025 Picks are delivering roughly double the return of the index at this point.
Here, MU and ARQT have been the stars, returning +180% and +120% YTD.
After my 2023 Portfolio that returned +54% vs. +26% for the S&P 500, and the stellar 2024 Portfolio that returned +138% vs. +25% for the S&P 500, I was sure that 2025 would not do that well.
At this point, if we have a good December, the 2025 Portfolio might beat the +54% mark of 2023. If.
So let’s just let it work through December and see where it lands in the end.
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
This week I am buying a position in NU – Nu Holdings Ltd.
Nu Holdings Ltd. provides a digital banking platform in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, the Cayman Islands, and the United States.
More specifically, I am issuing a BUY STOP order for 330 shares of NU if it touches $17.50. If triggered, my first stop-loss will be at $14.70.
I am not touching the existing positions and stop-loss levels.
10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO
I will be closing this portfolio soon and replacing it with the portfolio dedicated to my eBook series that I tried to start some months ago but could not fully commit to.
Over the next two weeks, I’ll launch a monthly eBook that will include 3 stock picks each month.
I updated my stop-loss levels, tightening them to capitalize on current gains in case of a pullback.
So I will wait for these natural pullbacks as opportunities to exit my current open positions, avoiding liquidating them right now and ideally capitalizing further if they keep marching up for some time.
That’s all for this week!
Best of luck to you all!
Important: This post is not investment advice.
Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.