Inflation Surprise, Market Strength & New Trades
February 16, 2025 - Update
📊 MACRO INSIGHTS: Inflation Surprise, Market Stays Strong
Last week, inflation came in hotter than expected, yet the 10-year Treasury yield finished slightly lower. What does this mean?
The U.S. economy remains strong—running at 3% growth with no signs of inflation spiraling out of control.
The 10-year yield isn’t signaling inflation panic, which suggests the market still sees inflation as manageable.
Key Market Highlights:
S&P 500: +1.5% for the week
NASDAQ: +2.58% for the week — just 1% away from all-time highs.
Oil prices remain low: ~$75 per barrel, easing inflation concerns.
Geopolitical Watch:
The Trump administration is reportedly working to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict. A peaceful resolution would be great news for humanity—and for market stability.
My Outlook:
I'm still bullish on stocks under these conditions but ready to change my mind if new data says otherwise.
📈 PORTFOLIO UPDATES
🔹 10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
📌 Start Date: April 2023 – Initial Capital: $10K
📌 Focus: High-growth, high-quality stocks
📌 Strategy: Ride bullish trends over weeks/months
📌 Risk Management: Tighter stop losses (~15%)
📌 ROI to Date: +141% (60% annualized)
🔍 Last Week’s Moves:
SMWB: A disappointing earnings call caused a 40% drop in one day—Stop Loss hit for a -16% loss (was +45% just before earnings!).
CMPO: Stop Loss triggered for a -9% loss.
Current Status:
I'm now left with 2 open positions in this portfolio.
⚡ This Week’s Trades:
BUY STOP 237 shares of ACAD (ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.) @ $20.20
Stop Loss: $17.90
BUY STOP 38 shares of PDD (PDD Holdings Inc.) @ $125.00
Stop Loss: $109.00
Stop Loss levels updated.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in treatments for neurological and rare diseases. Its two flagship products, NUPLAZID (for Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis) and DAYBUE (for Rett syndrome), are the only FDA-approved treatments in their respective indications, providing critical therapies for patients with high unmet needs.
The company has shown impressive financial progress, turning a profit of $82.7M in 2024 after years of losses. Revenue is expected to grow at 26% annually, with projections surpassing $1B in 2025. Acadia's ROA (re-stated) also reflects this momentum, improving from 7% in 2023 to 17% in 2024, with 15% projected for 2025.
With a promising pipeline, international expansion, and a newly focused commercial strategy, Acadia is well-positioned for continued growth, making it a compelling stock to consider right now.
PDD Holdings: A Hidden Gem with Explosive Profitability and Growth
PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD), the Chinese e-commerce powerhouse behind Temu, is positioned for remarkable growth. Under restated data, the company’s Return on Assets (ROA) soared to approximately 60% in 2024 and is projected to reach an astounding 100% by 2025. This reflects a rapidly growing profitability profile and operational efficiency.
Additionally, forward revenue growth is estimated at 50%, driven by Temu’s global expansion and dominance in China’s value-for-money segment. Despite these stellar fundamentals, PDD trades at a significant discount due to tariff war fears and widespread skepticism toward Chinese equities.
With its fast-growing earnings base, exceptional profitability trajectory, and attractive valuation, PDD offers a compelling investment opportunity for those looking beyond the noise of macroeconomic concerns.
🔹 10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO
📌 Start Date: Sept 15, 2024 – Initial Capital: $100K
📌 Focus: High-growth, undervalued companies
📌 Strategy: Up to 10 positions with wide stop losses (25–30%)
📌 ROI to Date: +16% (44% annualized)
📌 Goal: Explosive growth in strong markets
🔍 Last Week’s Moves:
A great week here:
LFMD & HOOD: +17% each
DLO: +5%
ASUR: +4%
⚡ This Week’s Trade:
BUY STOP 635 shares of BCRX (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.) @ $9.11
Stop Loss: $7.29
BUY order of 825 shares of LFMD (getting to a full position) @ $7 - note that I am betting on the stock to retrace allowing me to buy at a better price.
BUY order of 95 shares of HOOD (getting to a full position) @ $61 - note that I am betting on the stock to retrace allowing me to buy at a better price.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is a biotechnology company specializing in treatments for rare diseases, with a primary focus on hereditary angioedema (HAE). Its flagship product, ORLADEYO, is the first and only once-daily oral prophylactic treatment for HAE, offering superior convenience compared to injectable alternatives.
The company's strong revenue growth, with 2024 sales up 36% to $450M, and projections to reach $1B by 2029, demonstrate significant market traction. BioCryst is also expanding its pipeline with promising treatments for pediatric HAE, Netherton syndrome, and diabetic macular edema, targeting markets with high unmet needs.
Under re-stated data using Uniform Accounting principles, the company is already profitable, with an accelerating ROA expected to reach 19% in 2025. This adjusted view reveals that BCRX is significantly undervalued, especially given its path to profitability, growing real-world evidence of ORLADEYO’s effectiveness, and disciplined financial approach.
BCRX presents a compelling investment opportunity in the rare disease treatment space.
🚀 Exciting Announcement: My eBook Series Has Launched!
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This is the first in a monthly series. Each edition will highlight 5 undervalued growth stocks with promising upside.
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✅ 5 high-potential stock picks each month
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✅ Market insights & performance tracking
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📌 First Edition: FREE for everyone—feel free to share it!
That’s it for this week!
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.