GDP Shock (+4.3%), Bull Trend Holds — 2026 Picks Coming This Week

December 28th - 2025 Update

The most important data point this past week was the US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025. It printed a staggering +4.3%.

Most forecasts were calling for around 2% growth. That makes me wonder what the point of these forecasts is when accuracy can be this low.

At least the direction (+) was correct!

A strong economy can run too hot and bring inflation back. That is a mid-term risk.

Right now, the recent rate cut looks unnecessary in hindsight. Inflation is still the number to watch.

So far, inflation looks okay. Forecasts for December 2025 are around 2.6%.

Financial conditions and credit availability look fine. Earnings are improving and should keep expanding into 2026.

Overall, the picture remains supportive for stocks in the mid term. In the very short term, anything can happen.

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INDEX

We just went through the Christmas week. The index printed +1.4% on very low volume.

Below is my AI-assisted weekly chart commentary.

Stage call

Stage 2 (advancing) is intact. Price is well above the longer-term trend filter (30-week area).

All key moving averages are rising and properly stacked (10w > 20w > 30w > 40w). That’s the textbook “uptrend highway.”

What the chart is saying right now

New highs / continuation: This week pushed back to fresh highs (high ~6946). It also held above the 10-week after last week’s dip.

Trend strength: RSI is ~66. Bullish momentum, but not “blow-off” (>70) on this view.

Momentum cooling (not breaking): The MACD histogram is slightly negative. That’s a small “loss of thrust.”

That usually maps to a pause or sideways-to-up digestion. It is not automatically a reversal.

Levels that matter (practical)

Primary trend support: 10-week MA ~6774. A weekly close below it is your first real “trend damage” alert.

Next defense line: 20-week ~6558 (and the nearby prior price shelf ~6555). Lose that and the mindset shifts from “buy pullbacks” to “protect capital first.”

Implications for the coming weeks

Base case: The bull trend continues. Expect more chop near the highs.

Best playbook in this tape: Selective adds on constructive pullbacks toward the 10-week. Or clean breakouts in true leaders.

Worst playbook: Chasing extended strength into new highs while MACD is flattening.

Key takeaways

Trend is up (Stage 2). No technical breakdown.

Short-term momentum is cooling. That raises the odds of consolidation more than an immediate trend change.

Your “tell” is simple. Hold above ~6774 (10w) stays constructive. Lose it on a weekly close and I get more defensive.

PORTFOLIOS

Before getting into it, a quick reminder. Next week I will release:

• The final result for my 2025 Picks portfolio

• An update on my long-term portfolio

• My brand-new 2026 Picks portfolio

So stay tuned for an extra newsletter issue before next weekend!

10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO

My AFRM buy stop order was triggered. Below is what the portfolio looks like today. I also updated my stop-loss levels.

This week I am issuing a BUY STOP order for 50 shares of STEP if it touches $66.8. If triggered, the first stop is $59.9.

STEP — StepStone Group Inc.
StepStone is a global investment firm focused on private markets. It invests directly in private companies through ownership stakes or private loans.

It also invests in private equity and venture capital funds. It buys existing investor stakes through “secondary” deals.

It operates worldwide, with a strong focus on the US. It also invests across Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.

StepStone shows an impressive 43% ROA and earnings margins above 30%. The company is expected to grow revenues at about +30% over the next two years. It grew +92% last year. Based on my valuation model, it looks undervalued right now.

Below is the current weekly chart.

I like the setup because it offers a low-risk entry. MACD is crossing the signal line from below while still in positive territory.

Price is above all key weekly moving averages. Those moving averages are also pointing up.

10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH

As mentioned in past weeks, I am closing down this portfolio. I’m left with a single position: BTSG.

See below how the portfolio looks today. I updated my stop-loss level.

That’s all for this week!

I wish you a great New Year’s Eve. Stay tuned this week for my new 2026 Picks portfolio.

My 2025 Picks portfolio is up about 38% for the year. That’s after +138% in 2024 and +54% in 2023.

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Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.