From Fear to Opportunity: Why I’m Still Hopeful for a Rebound
APRIL 6, 2025 - Update
This past week was one for the history books. The Nasdaq dropped 10% in just five days, putting it 22% below its February peak. Technically, the Nasdaq is in a bear market.
The S&P 500 lost 9% for the week and is now down 17% from its high.
Many blame the new administration’s tariff plans. As an International Economist, I cannot see logic in these tariffs—unless there’s a hidden plan I don’t understand.
The market has shed several trillions in value, while the tariff revenue is estimated below $1 trillion. That’s not exactly a winning trade for the U.S. economy so far.
Why the Drop?
It’s not a credit or liquidity crisis. Money supply is still improving in the U.S. and other major economies.
It’s more of a “growth fear”: tariffs could slow global trade and potentially spark a recession in the coming months. Oil prices have plunged under $70, and 10-year Treasury yields are holding under 4%, signaling that inflation isn’t a major threat right now.
If the economy isn’t collapsing, this is a fear-driven dip—one that might turn into a great buying opportunity if some tariff deals get done soon. Let’s stay prepared.
PORTFOLIOS UPDATE
10X Momentum Portfolio:
My last stock (PDD) hit its stop loss at -17%. I’m now fully in cash. After two years and 45 closed trades, the annualized return is 45.6% (up 113% total), beating the S&P by 90%.
I won’t buy again until the 20-day moving average points up.
10X Underpriced Growth Portfolio:
Also fully in cash since early March. This portfolio started in September 2024 and is flat overall (0% return), but that still beats the S&P 500 by 9%. Sometimes, “cash is a position.”
My 2025 10X Picks:
A “buy-and-hold” list, currently at -28%—worse than the S&P 500 by 15%. We still have nine months to go in 2025.
Best of ARKK Portfolio:
Always invested type of Portfolio, benchmarked against the ARKK Innovation ETF, and rebalanced every three months. Since October 2024, I’m up 24.5% vs. ARKK’s -11.46%. Keep an eye out for my next rebalance update next week. You can find more about this experiment in my original post.
10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH MONTHLY EBOOK SERIES
No new ebook for early April. I’m not buying any stock yet—my rule is “no new stock purchases until the 10-week SMA flattens or turns upward.”
Currently holding just one position: ANIP (ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.), which has held steady (+10%).
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Conclusion
If the U.S. starts making deals, we could see a big market bounce. If not, there will be more pain. For now, I’m following my rules—staying on the sidelines until charts and fundamentals line up.
That’s all for this week. If you enjoy my content, please like or share!
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Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.