🌍 MACRO
I’m back from travelling — and I’m doing very little in this environment.
Over the mid term I remain bullish: credit conditions for corporates are still in a very good place.
In the near term, though, be prepared for volatility. The market read last week’s Fed chair speech as hawkish, and expectations for a rate hike before year-end 2026 now sit at ~70%.
The setup:
10-year Treasury yield at 4.7%, near the high end of the last six-plus months.
Oil just below $90.
August inflation expectations at 3.37%, up from 2.9% in July.
All of this puts pressure on growth stocks — tech, biotech, and anything long-duration. Add two more headwinds: midterms are approaching, and they historically bring volatility. And September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks.
So let’s be cautious as we move through September.
📊 INDEX
The index remains in an uptrend, with all key moving averages stacked and pointing up.
🔄 SECTORS
Technology is still the strongest sector. Financials had a good week — unsurprising in this macro. Energy sits third. Utilities remain the weakest, which tells you this is not a run toward safety.
This is a market driven by two things: the AI investment cycle, and a rotation into sectors less exposed to higher rates. Money is moving into Financials, Energy and Tech, and that flow is too large to ignore.
Software is making an interesting move here — see the cybersecurity, cloud computing and software themes below, all performing well.
On the other side: Solar, Nuclear, Clean Energy and Robotics are suffering. They are capital-hungry, and the price of money is rising.
💼 PORTFOLIOS
10X MOMENTUM
My AMD stop was triggered last week. Booked a +105% gain on that trade. That leaves me with three names, all healthcare. See below.
This week I’m taking a half-size position in a small-cap energy name: INR (Infinity Natural Resources).
What it does
Drills for natural gas and oil in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Owns its own pipelines — lower transport costs, better margins.
The AI connection
AI data centers run 24/7 and need enormous, constant power.
Solar and wind can’t deliver round-the-clock supply on their own, which pushes tech companies toward natural gas. Infinity’s gas fields sit right next to major data center hubs.
Why it could move
Growth: Production up ~75% year-over-year, driving record quarterly profits ($115M EBITDAX).
Upcoming catalyst: Test results from a new ultra-deep gas layer (”Deep Utica”) land in the coming months and could unlock significant hidden reserves.
Cheaper drilling: Completion costs cut by $50/ft, expanding margins.
Insider buying: Executives recently bought $2M of their own stock. Sell-side targets sit at $22–$23 versus ~$14 today (~50% upside).
My trade: buy-stop order, 200 shares of INR, triggered at $15.45 this week.
INR Weekly Chart
10X EASY DOUBLES
First, a question I want to answer: since the original post where I published 28 stocks that could double — what actually happened to them? I prepared a table to check it out:
Equal-dollar into all 28, held to today: +38.6% over roughly four months. The S&P 500 over the same window: +21.3%. That’s 17.3 percentage points of outperformance. You are welcome : )
A sign the selection process is sound.
No additions this week. Two exits on the table:
Sell LQDA if Friday’s close is below $60.
Sell LEGN if Friday’s close is below $18.50.
Below is what the real portfolio looks like today.
Important: This is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. AI tools used for editing.
Great insights, Giovanni! In the "Easy Doubles" portfolio, the thesis worked really well right from the start. Maybe a smart way to look at it was to take positions in all of them from the beginning and progressively weed out the losers to optimize that performance even further.
Of course, a lot depends on timing and avoiding sharp market moves—like the ones we saw last year before the tariffs came in, right around the time you put out the 5 High Quality and Undervalued Stocks. Great work!