Fed Cut—What Now?

November 2, 2025 - Update

Weekly Update

The big news this week was the FED’s rate cut.

I’m watching inflation.
If it picks up again, the FED may pause cuts. That could spike market volatility.

Next week matters.
We’ll get fresh data on manufacturing and unemployment.

I’m still bullish on U.S. stocks for the next few months.
Any pullback could be a buy.

We’re near all-time highs, yet sentiment is soft.
The Fear & Greed Index shows “FEAR.”

INDEX

The S&P 500 closed the week up 0.7%.

I expected a correction from August to October.
Instead, the market is up about 7%.

Now many expect a strong November–December.
What do we actually get?

S&P 500 – AI-Assisted Stage Analysis (Weekly)

Stage: Stage 2 (advancing), late/mature.
Price is above a rising 30-week average, and above the 10- and 20-week lines.
We’re printing/near new highs.

Strength: Uptrend intact. Momentum positive.
Dips get bought. Pullbacks hold the rising MAs.

Cautions: A bit stretched above the 30-week.
Momentum is slowing—normal for a mature Stage-2 move.
Air pockets are possible if leaders wobble.

Lines to watch

• 10-week: first support; healthy pullbacks can tag this.

• 20-week: deeper, still normal in Stage 2.

• 30-week: line in the sand for the primary uptrend.

What would change the stage

• Repeated closes below the 10/20-week with a flattening 30-week → Stage 3 (topping) risk.

• A weekly close below a falling 30-week → Stage 4 (decline) signal.

Playbook
Stay bullish, but don’t chase.
Buy pullbacks to the 10- or 20-week.
Tighten risk on any weekly close below the 10-week.

PORTFOLIOS

10X 2025 Picks

I built this as a 12-month challenge just before the year started. Read the original post below.

After being down more than 30% in April, here’s the current performance: +39% YTD, beating the S&P 500 by ~23 points. What a ride!

Let’s see how it ends.
This portfolio is more volatile than the index.
A strong year-end rally could help—or a drop could hit hard.

10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO

MU and MVST orders filled. I’m fully invested again.
I updated stop losses.

Open positions show a 231% average annualized return (on average).
944 days since inception with a +50% annualized track record.
Below is the updated scorecard.

10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO

This week:

• EVR: stopped out (combined −7.6%).

• ZETA: stopped out (+15% cumulative gain).

• MDGL: stopped out (−10.6%).

POWL and FSL are doing very well here.
I adjusted stop losses.

Many watchlist names look strong but extended. I don’t want to chase.
This week I will:

• Place a BUY STOP for 400 shares of AUPH at $13.30.
  If filled, first stop loss at $10.70.

AUPH – Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Biopharma focused on therapies for autoimmune diseases.
Founded in 1993, HQ in Edmonton, Canada.
~20% YoY growth. Profitability improving fast.
ROA could reach ~22% by year-end.
Earnings margins are rising fast too.

Wrap-Up

That’s all for this week!
A question for you: What would you like me to do more or less of?
Tell me in the comments or send a private message. I’d like to betetr understand what would make this newsletter more interesting or useful for you. Thanks!

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Important: This post is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.