Economic Indicators Upbeat Amid Fed's 50bps Cut: New Positions in Focus

September 22, 2024 - Update

A quick update from me this week.

We finally received the Fed's decision, and it was in the right direction: cutting rates by 50 basis points.

As we've discussed many times here, the question now is to understand whether the Fed has acted too late (meaning a recession will come anyway) or not (meaning we get a soft or no landing).

Last week's economic data—namely retail sales and new building permits—came in better than expected, suggesting no signs of economic weakness.

What is the GDP Nowcasting telling us today? It says +3% for Q3 2024 and 2.7% for Q4 2024.

What about credit conditions? Are banks tightening credit conditions? Since Q3 2023, the number of banks tightening has been on the decline: