Easing Monetary Policies and Portfolio New Buys

October 6th, 2024 Update

Macro Overview:

• Financial Conditions: Financial conditions continue to improve.

• Monetary Policy: Monetary policy is easing.

• GDP Nowcast: The GDP Nowcast for Q3 is at 3%, and 2.7% for Q4—indicating no recession in sight.

• Inflation: Inflation is expected to print at 2.25% for September 2024; however, the Nowcast is pointing to 2.49% for October 2024.

• Brent Oil Prices: Brent oil is at $78, up from $70 just a week ago—a reaction to increasing tensions in the Middle East and Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus (leading to higher demand for oil).

• Global Monetary Easing: Globally, the world is moving into a “monetary easing” period, as shown by the chart below.

  

My takeaway: From a macro perspective, the background remains healthy for stocks as a recession is not in sight and as we move away from too-tight credit conditions. Inflation is not a real concern right now. An escalation in the Middle East or the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is the most worrisome piece of the puzzle. Also, as we head into e…