Macro Overview:
Financial Conditions: Financial conditions continue to improve.
Monetary Policy: Monetary policy is easing.
GDP Nowcast: The GDP Nowcast for Q3 is at 3%, and 2.7% for Q4—indicating no recession in sight.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to print at 2.25% for September 2024; however, the Nowcast is pointing to 2.49% for October 2024.
Brent Oil Prices: Brent oil is at $78, up from $70 just a week ago—a reaction to increasing tensions in the Middle East and Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus (leading to higher demand for oil).
Global Monetary Easing: Globally, the world is moving into a “monetary easing” period, as shown by the chart below.
My takeaway: From a macro perspective, the background remains healthy for stocks as a recession is not in sight and as we move away from too-tight credit conditions. Inflation is not a real concern right now. An escalation in the Middle East or the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is the most worrisome piece of the puzzle. Also, as we head into e…
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