Weekly Market & Portfolio Update 🚀
MACRO: Inflation, M2 & the FED—What’s Next?
M2 growth stalled in December 2024, signaling that the FED remains focused on inflation rather than easing monetary policy.
Since April 2024, M2 had been expanding, but this pause raises concerns. A decline in M2 would be even worse—something to watch.
Financial conditions are improving, as seen in the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Credit Subindex and looser bank lending standards.
Inflation forecast for January 2025: 2.85% (slightly better than December’s 2.9%).
GDP growth for Q1 2025: Expected at 2.9%, a healthy pace.
Bottom Line:
Macro conditions still favor stocks, but there’s little room for the market to handle a FED policy shift toward tightening. Right now, the FED isn’t restrictive or accommodative—we need inflation to keep trending lower for stocks to thrive.
MARKETS: DeepSeek Selloff & Resilience
The NASDAQ dropped over 4% on Monday after DeepSeek’s panic-driven selloff but ended the week down just -1.6%, even after Trump’s new tariff announcement.
The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at -1%, while the equal-weight RSP dipped -0.5%.
Key moving averages remain strong despite short-term volatility.
Takeaway: Stocks still have a favorable backdrop, but we must avoid bad inflation data and a restrictive FED shift. Watching closely.
PORTFOLIOS & STRATEGY UPDATES
10X – 2025 PICKS PORTFOLIO
📌 Method: Select ~10 stocks yearly based on quality, profitability, sales growth, and valuation.
📌 Holding Period: Full year—no changes.
Performance:
2023: +54% (vs. S&P 500 +26%)
2024: +138% (vs. S&P 500 +25%)
2025 YTD: -3.8% (vs. S&P 500 +2.7%)
🔍 Current Snapshot:
Winners: FOUR, GTLS, MU
Laggards: AEHR, FLNC
It’s only month 1 of 12—plenty of time for things to shift.
10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO
📌 Start Date: Sept 15, 2024 – Initial Capital: $100K
📌 Focus: High-growth, undervalued companies
📌 Strategy: Up to 10 positions at a time with wide stop losses (25–30%)
📌 Goal: Explosive growth in strong markets
Updates:
❌ HITI stopped out at -19% loss.
✅ Stride (LRN) triggered & now up 13% from my buy point.
🔹 7 active positions, 35% cash.
🔍 New Trades This Week:
BUY STOP 105 shares of NXT (Nextracker) at $52
Stop Loss: $39
BUY STOP 990 shares of LFMD (LifeMed) at $5.65
Stop Loss: $4.69
Why? Both have accelerating sales & profitability but remain undervalued.
My Stop Loss levels have been Updated.
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
📌 Start Date: April 2023 – Initial Capital: $10K
📌 Focus: High-growth, high-quality stocks without overvaluation
📌 Strategy: Ride bullish trends over weeks/months
📌 Risk Management: Tighter stop losses (~15%)
DeepSeek’s Fallout:
The selloff triggered my Stop Losses on SMTC and CRDO (losses: -16% to -18%).
Both stocks recovered later, but I prefer to wait before re-entering semiconductors until DeepSeek’s impact on the sector is clearer.
PRIM hit its stop loss for a +25% gain.
New Trade This Week:
BUY STOP 100 shares of CART (Maplebear Inc.) at $49.7
Stop Loss: $43.5
BUY STOP 7 shares of META (Meta Inc.) at $699
Stop Loss: $603
My Stop Loss levels have been Updated.
🚀 NEW: Monthly Investment eBook Series Launching!
🔥 Coming February 2025: "5 Undervalued Growth Stocks" – A blueprint for smarter investing.
Each month, I’ll release an exclusive e-book featuring:
✅ 5 undervalued high-growth stocks with massive upside potential.
✅ Deep-dive analysis into profitability, sales growth, and valuation.
✅ A transparent performance tracker vs. the S&P 500.
✅ Risk management updates (stop losses, trends, insights).
📌 Paid subscribers get FREE access & real-time portfolio tracking!
🔜 February 2025 is just the beginning! Stay tuned. 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Consult a professional before investing.
That’s it for this week!
Waooo!! Thanks Giovanni!!! Waiting with gratitude for the ebook.