Buy the Rumor, Sell the Deal?
Why the market isn't exhausted, the rotation into software and cloud is real — and the 7 stocks I'm buying this week
MACRO
Oil is trending down — the market is pricing in a conflict resolution. If a deal is signed, oil stays lower and equities keep grinding higher. Financial conditions remain supportive, and the Fed would likely shift back to a more accommodative posture post-deal, which is what equity markets want.
This is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. AI tools used for editing.
INDEX
The S&P 500 closed +1.4% for the week.
On the weekly, we’re in overbought territory. A deal signed next week could paradoxically trigger a short-term selloff — classic “buy the rumor, sell the news.” The market may need a breather soon.
SECTOR AND THEMES
Regime: Risk-On, Rotation in Progress
Both risk ratios bullish (Risk Appetite +2.81%, Confidence +2.07%). Defensives — Utilities, Staples, Low Vol — were the week’s worst performers. The market is not rotating out of risk, it’s rotating within it.
The Key Shift This Week
Trend leaders (Tech, Semis) paused. Fresh money went to the next tier: Cloud (SKYY +8.2%), Software (IGV +8.1%), Cybersecurity (CIBR +5.4%), Fintech (FINX +5.5%), Disruptive Growth (ARKK +5.5%). Solar and clean energy extended multi-month strength. This is healthy sector broadening — the rally is finding new legs, not exhausting itself.
What’s Breaking Down
Energy (XLE) reversed hard — the 6M leader is rolling over. Uranium broken across all horizons. Bitcoin-the-asset (IBIT −3.2%) weak even as crypto equities rallied. Financials remain a structural laggard.
The One Caveat
Breadth is recovering but not confirmed: % above 50DMA at 39.94, Net New 52W Highs at ~41–47 — both climbing off March lows but still below the neutral line (50). The rally is improving but leadership remains concentrated.
Implication for the Coming Weeks
Bullish bias intact. The rotation into software, cloud, and growth themes is the trade. Watch two things: (1) whether semis resume leadership — if yes, the advance broadens and the next leg up is real; (2) whether breadth pushes through 50 — that’s the confirmation signal. If both stall here, narrow leadership turns from a feature into a warning.
PORTFOLIOS
10X Momentum Portfolio
Orders for RDW and CRDO were filled last week. RDW went parabolic. I’m now fully invested across 5 positions with no cash. Stop losses adjusted accordingly.
All positions in the green. Average open gain: +35%. Annualized return: +51% over 3+ years — 185 percentage points above the S&P 500.
No action this week.
10X Easy Doubles Portfolio
First double is in: DELL +139%. New buys coming. Details below.
