Important: this is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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Here is my quick update for the week.
The market keeps marching slowly but surely higher. Below is the SP500 right at an important level (4300). The chart looks bullish.
When I look at the Equal Weight SP500 below the picture is different, less bullish, and yet it is improving.
The Equal Weighted tech QQQE index is in a clear uptrend as mentioned several times over the last weeks.
Looking at other sectors, last week almost all sectors showed improvements but Consumer Staples. It’s worth noticing that also Industrials, Finance, and Consumer Discretionary are improving.
My take in a nutshell:
Unless there is significant negative recessionary data that begins to appear in headlines, the market is expected to continue its upward trend despite concerns.
It is important to remember that even though interest rates won’t rise for a while, we are still operating within a quantitative tightening environment. This environment is likely to result in unfavorable economic data at some point in the future.
I am closely monitoring Money Supply (M2) and credit conditions, but I haven't observed any signs of improvement yet.
I will continue riding this uptrend until it changes, although I cannot predict when that might happen.
The technology rally has been stretched, so a pullback may occur in the near future.
Next week, the CPI (inflation) data for May will be released. If the results are positive and accompanied by statements from FED officials about pausing rate hikes, it could benefit the market.
The soft landing hypothesis is gaining more mainstream attention, and I'm not sure if it's a positive development. :)
PORTFOLIOS (POTs)
10X SMALL CAP MOMENTUM POT
Now I am fully invested in 8 positions. The market over the last weeks has been helpful and right now the overall ROI is above 12%, beating the SP500 by about 4.7%
Below are my 8 positions. So nice to see a +187% name and a +87% name in there. If you are a paid subscriber, please check out your link to the portfolio as I updated most of the Stop Loss levels.
Or subscribe to get full access and support my research.
10X LARGE CAP MOMENTUM POT (link)
Last week my TWLO 0.00%↑ order was triggered and now I have 4 positions;
I am not doing anything this week on this POT. I want to see my current positions improve before adding a new name.
Right now the Large Cap portfolio is in the red by about 3%:
Here is a picture of my current positions and Stop Loss levels:
That’s all for this week. Let’s see what next week will bring.