Beating ARKK by 46% in 12 Months — What I’m Doing Next
Oct 19, 2025 Update
Nervous week in the U.S. markets driven by tensions in the banking system. Some China/U.S. tariff risks remain.
As I’ve said for quite some time, financial conditions look good. Paired with non-alarming inflation, low oil prices, and strong earnings from U.S. public companies, the overall environment looks favorable for stocks in the mid term.
INDEX
What the chart says
Stage: Still Stage 2 (advancing). Price is making higher highs/lows, and the 10-/20-/30-/40-week MAs are all rising and properly stacked.
Momentum:
RSI ~65 — strong, not overheated.
Weekly MACD is positive and flattening; momentum cooled but hasn’t turned down.
Volume: About normal. No clear distribution spike.
What it implies for the next few weeks
Base case: Uptrend continues with some sideways/choppy action. A push through ~6,750–6,800 would likely extend the advance.
Key supports (“lines in the sand”):
Early warning: A weekly close back below the 10-week (~6,660) that isn’t reclaimed quickly.
Trend guardrail: 20-week (~6,485). A decisive weekly close below ~6,485 would put the index on Stage-3 watch (topping risk) and favors a test of the 30-week (~6,310).
Investor playbook (not short-term trading)
Stay net long while the index is above a rising 20/30-week.
Prefer leaders that hold their 10-week on pullbacks; avoid chasing extended names.
If the index closes below ~6,485, tighten stops across positions and reduce laggards.
Bottom line: The S&P 500 remains in Stage 2 with a successful 10-week retest.
PORTFOLIOS
10X MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO
I am fully invested here. I adjusted a few stop-loss levels. Not doing anything this coming week.
Portfolio return since inception: +177% (49% annualized).
10X UNDERPRICED GROWTH PORTFOLIO
I updated my stop-loss levels. This week I’m buying (again) DLocal Limited (DLO). Specifically, I’m issuing:
BUY STOP for 345 shares of DLO if it touches $15.50. If triggered, my first stop-loss is $13.40.
Here’s a brief description of the company and its weekly chart.
What DLocal (DLO) does
Connects big global merchants to local payments in emerging markets.
One integration; pay-ins and pay-outs.
900+ local methods; 45+ countries.
Adds extras: Buy Now, Pay Later at checkout; stablecoin on/off-ramps; POS pilot.
Theme it’s part of
Boom in digital payments across the Global South.
E-commerce going mainstream in EMs.
Shift of cross-border trade toward EMs.
Why it could be a good mid-term investment
Strong growth momentum (Total Payment Volume +53%, revenue +50% in Q2 ’25).
Forward revenue growth ~25%.
Healthy margins (~27% adj. EBITDA) and operating leverage.
Capital-light model; good cash generation.
Improving margins and return on assets.
Diversifying by country and clients; concentration risk easing.
Product innovation drives cross-sell and wallet share.
Expanding licenses and compliance footprint.
High insider ownership (~47%) aligns incentives.
Undervalued based on my personal estimates.
Weekly chart — Stage Analysis (investor)
Where it sits now
Stage: Early Stage 2 (emerging). Price is above rising 30- and 40-week MAs; the 10-week > 20-week > 30-week stack has formed.
Breakout & retest: Cleared the ~14–15 base/pivot in Aug–Sep and pulled back ~10–11% this week to sit on/above the 10-week — a typical first back-test.
Volume pattern: Expansion on the advance; pullback volume looks orderly, consistent with a constructive retest.
What to watch next (next few weeks)
Support zone: 14.0–14.6 (pivot + 10-week). Holding this keeps the breakout intact.
Trend guardrail: Rising 30-week (~low-13s) is the investor bull/bear line. Above it = Stage 2 intact; several weeks below it risks slipping back to Stage 1.
Overhead supply: Expect churn near 16.5–17.5 (prior weekly highs) before a clean run.
Catalyst risk: Earnings around Nov 12 — tends to add volatility.
Investor takeaway
Constructive: Early uptrend with a normal retest. If RS improves and price reclaims 16+ on rising volume, odds favor continuation.
Caution if: Weekly close < ~13.5 (below the 30-week and shelf) — that would signal a Stage-2 failure back into a range.
10X BEST OF ARKK PORTFOLIO
Now it’s time to rebalance my 10X Best of ARKK Portfolio Experiment. Let’s see how I close the first year.
Current open positions are up 39% on average and 122% annualized. Below is the scorecard for the first year (started on Oct 15, 2024). Total return is 128.5%, and this portfolio outperformed the ARKK Innovation ETF by 46%. Excellent result, considering the ETF itself returned +82%.
Now let’s go through the process again.
All companies under the ARKK funds:
ABNB, ABSI, ACHR, ADPT, AIR, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, ARCT, ATAI, AUR, AVAV, BABA, BEAM, BFLY, BIDU, BILL, BLSH, BMNR, BWXT, BYDDY, CAI, CAT, CCJ, CDNA, CERS, CMPS, COIN, CRCL, CRM, CRSP, CRWD, CRWV, DASH, DDOG, DE, DKNG, DSY, ESLT, ETOR, EXAS, FP, FUTU, GENI, GH, GLBE, GOOG, GRMN, GTLB, HEI, HON, HOOD, IBTA, ICE, ILMN, INCY, INTU, IONS, IRDM, ISRG, JOBY, KDK, KLAR, KMTUY, KSPI, KTOS, LAB, LHX, LMT, LUNR, MASS, MELI, META, NET, NRIX, NTLA, NTRA, NU, NVDA, NXDR, OKLO, PACB, PD, PINS, PLTR, PONY, PRME, PRNT, PSNL, PSTG, PYPL, QCOM, QSI, RBLX, RBRK, RDDT, REGN, RKLB, ROKU, RXRX, SDGR, SE, SHOP, SLMT, SNPS, SOFI, SPOT, SRTA, SYM, TDY, TEM, TER, TOST, TRMB, TSLA, TSM, TTD, TWST, TXG, U, VCYT, VEEV, VRTX, WGS, XYZ, Z.
126 companies.Filter to those that:
Are expected to grow at least 15% on average over the next two fiscal years, and
Have TTM revenue ≥ $50 million, and
Market cap ≥ $50 million, and
Had a positive revenue surprise in the last earnings call.
Now left with 47 companies:
ADPT, AMD, AVAV, BLSH, CAI, CERS, CRCL, CRWD, CRWV, DASH, DDOG, DKNG, ETOR, FUTU, GENI, GH, GLBE, GTLB, HEI, HOOD, ISRG, KLAR, KSPI, MELI, META, NET, NTRA, NVDA, PINS, PLTR, RBLX, RBRK, RDDT, RKLB, RXRX, SE, SHOP, SOFI, SYM, TEM, TOST, TSM, TTD, TWST, VCYT, WGS, Z.
Then select companies that are simultaneously:
Profitable.
Improving profitability (ROA).
Investing in themselves and expanding (asset growth).
Improving earnings margins.
Undervalued (or fairly valued).
After my analysis using adjusted data, I’m left with:
AMD, DASH, GENI, GLBE, HOOD, KSPI, RBRK, TOST, TSM, VCYT.
Compared to the current names, I’m replacing five companies.
Keep: AMD, GENI, GLBE, HOOD, TSM.
Add: DASH, KSPI, RBRK, TOST, VCYT.
Remove: BYDDY, FUTU, NU, SMWB, SYM.
As I sell these five names, I will reinvest the total proceeds evenly into the five new stocks (DASH, KSPI, RBRK, TOST, VCYT).
And that’s all for the week!
Important: This post is not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision