April 16 2023 Update

The markets and what I am doing with my portfolios (POTS)

Important: this is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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Technicals

The SP500 equal weight is still in a sideways movement and for sure has been improving over the last weeks. Indecisive.

Looking at Industry sectors, although defensive sectors such as Utilities & Consumer Staples did well for a few weeks, they are not showing strength. On the other hand, Consumer Discretionary and Technology still look OK after some consolidation.

Overall, we are still in a market that is not sure about what is going to happen next and cannot decide about moving higher or lower.

Energy is improving as oil prices have been increasing after the OPEC decision to cut production.

Financials showed a bit of improvement as the banking crisis is subsiding: a good development although is still early to make a final call on the stability of the credit markets.

Other Markets

Looking around markets, Developed equity markets look strong:

France is an example of a very healthy equity market right now:

Germany, Italy, Poland, and Denmark are doing very well also.

Brazil, on the emerging markets side, had a big rebound that looks promising:

Individual Stocks

Looking at interesting charts, I am noticing some shipping stocks like ZIM 0.00%↑ or shoe stocks like CROX 0.00%↑ or SKX 0.00%↑ behaving well.

Not the kind of stock you expect to do well right before the start of a recession.

Conclusion

All in all, an indecisive market that shows signs of hope moving forward.

The rising rates cycle is near an end and the big question still on the table is about “how hard” the coming recession will be.

Future economic data will help assess what those implications will be and the markets will trend accordingly.

Time to stay patient and prudent and keep testing the waters with limited positions.

10X POTS (Portfolios)

If you are here for the first time, I manage 4 portfolios (POTS). Two are available for free, and two are available for paid subscribers only (thanks for your support!).

Let's address my FREE POTS first.

1. 10X FREE CAPITAL POT (link)

The portfolio is -24% since inception.

I am adding ZG 0.00%↑ and SWAV 0.00%↑ to the POT. It is the first addition since November of last year. Zillow keeps improving slowly and, as the rise in interest rates is near a pause, it looks like a good moment to add.

This is a “never sell” kind of Portfolio. With such a time horizon, I feel comfortable adding now.

Shockwave just started a new uptrend, their fundamentals are solid and growth rates (sales) are very strong. Valuation is fair.

Zillow is the leader in real estate listings and after some experiments that did not work (using AI to buy and sell houses at a premium themselves), they are back focusing on growing their core business and getting back to profitability.

2. 10X LARGE CAP MOMENTUM POT (link)

I am adding OTEX 0.00%↑, an emerging software company with a market cap of about 10 BN:

• On Monday I’ll create a Stop Buy Order for 60 shares of OTEX 0.00%↑ that would trigger at $39.27. If triggered I’ll add a Stop Loss at $33.9

I’m not touching anything else on this portfolio.

3. 10X SMALL CAP MOMENTUM POT (paid subscribers only).