2023 in Review: Market Trends, Portfolio Performance, and a Glimpse of 2024

January 1st 2024, Update

Let’s start with the market by looking at the equal-weight SP500 ($RSP):

The market looks healthy as it moved out of the consolidation box above on high volume. Although I expect some form of a correction in the short term due to profit-taking after many positive weeks, then we should finally see if the top of the box becomes a new support area or not.

Looking at the macro, we finally got the M2 data for November 2023 and the good news is that M2 is not decreasing anymore and has been neutral since April 2023:

This is important as recessions are created by a lack of access to credit (Money) and the chart above is consistent with an economy that is normalizing after the pandemic. Yes, it is plenty of pessimists out there calling for a hard landing. I want to be prepared for all scenarios, yet my current view is that we are witnessing a normalization and we can see inflation to stay low and the economy to slow down avoiding a hard landing.

Now to my Portfolios.

First, I want to share the performance of a portfolio I picked and shared on Twitter on the last day of 2022:

Well, the portfolio returned +54%, doubling the +25% returned by the SP500. See below the details:

I wish I invested in this portfolio! Instead, I tried to outsmart myself by trading every week, with results not that great.

I have now my fresh picks for 2024. I wish it would perform the same or better… yet I have no idea how it will end in 2024. Here are my picks for 2024:

As a reminder: ROA or return on invested capital (ROIC) are the same thing and it tells me how profitable the company is expected to be in 2024. Asset Growth refers to how much the company is reinvesting (=expanding). Valuation is based on a DCF model I use, yet it takes some of my conservative assumptions to determine if the current stock price is fair or not.

10X SMALL CAP MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO (link)

I raised my Stop Loss levels as shown below.

The Portfolio keeps doing well. I am not buying anything this week.

10X LARGE CAP MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO (link)

Also in this case I raised my Stop Loss levels. And I am not buying anything this week.

That’s all for this year. Have a great 2024!
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Important: This is not investment advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.