10X Momentum and Growth: Lessons and Wins This Week

December 15, 2024 - Update

MACRO

November inflation came in as expected at 2.7% YoY. The forecast for December is slightly higher at 2.8%, indicating a small upward trend that isn’t favorable.

The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) continues to rise, posing a potential headwind for the markets.

Next week, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates. There is a 95% probability of a 250 basis points rate cut. However, the critical aspect will be the Fed’s commentary on future expectations. If the Fed’s tone leans toward prudence or restrictiveness due to inflation concerns, it could trigger a short-term market sell-off.

The Q4 GDP nowcast remains stable at 1.8%.

Takeaway: This is a time for patience and preparation. Stay flexible and ready for various scenarios.

INDEXES

The NASDAQ closed the week up 0.34%, maintaining a positive and healthy trend, with all moving averages pointing upward.

The equal-weight S&P 500 on the daily chart appears less promising, showing several consecutive days of declines. This signals underlying struggles for many stocks. While short-term moving averages are shifting, the mid- and long-term trends remain upward for now.

PORTFOLIOS